Seroprevalence of human herpes viruses in France, 2018-2022: a multilevel regression and poststratification approach.

Abstract

Background: Information related to herpes simplex virus 1 and 2 (HSV-1 and 2), varicella-zoster virus (VZV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), and cytomegalovirus (CMV) seroprevalence in France is either lacking, incomplete, or outdated, despite their public health burden.

Method: We used routinely collected serological data between 2018 and 2022 to estimate HSV-1, HSV-2, VZV, EBV, and CMV seroprevalence in France. To account for demographic differences between our analytic samples and the French population and get estimates for sparsely sampled districts and age classes, we used a multilevel regression and poststratification approach combined with Bayesian model averaging via stacking weights.

Results: The observed seroprevalence (number of positive tests/number of tests) were 64.6% (93,294/144,424), 16.9% (24,316/144,159), 93.0% (141,419/152,084), 83.4% (63,199/75, 781), and 49.0% (23,276/47,525), respectively, for HSV-1, HSV-2, VZV, EBV, and CMV. Between 2018 and 2022, France had a model-based average (equal-tailed interval at 95%) expected seroprevalence equal to 61.1% (60.7,61.5), 14.5% (14.2,14.81), 89.5% (89.3,89.8), 85.6% (85.2,86.0), and 50.5% (49.3,51.7), respectively, for HSV-1, HSV-2, VZV, EBV, and CMV infections. We found an almost certain lower expected seroprevalence in Metropolitan France than in overseas territories for all viruses but VZV, for which it was almost certainly greater. The expected seroprevalences were likely greater among females for all viruses.

Limitations: Our results relied on the assumption that individuals were sampled at random conditionally to variables used to build the poststratification table.

Implications: The analysis highlights spatial and demographic patterns in seroprevalence that should be considered for designing tailored public health policies.