Time trends in the incidence of interstitial lung disease across Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis.

IF 6.6 2区医学 Q1 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM

Respirology Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-30 DOI:10.1111/resp.14785

Zhen Yang, Zhiqin Xie, Zequan Wang, Yunyu Du, Shihan Chen, Xiuqiang Wu, Shengliang Zhou, Linxia Yi, Peiyao Zhang, Tianxin Xiang, Chaozhu He

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Abstract

Background and objective: The global incidence of interstitial lung disease (ILD) has risen over the past few decades. However, few studies have evaluated the status and incidence trends of ILD in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). This study assesses the trends of ILD incidence across the BRICS with an emphasis on ILD changes from 1990 to 2019.

Methods: Incidence rates were estimated by the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Age-period-cohort modelling was used to estimate the effects on ILD from 1990 to 2019, and the net drift and local drift were calculated.

Results: In 2019, a total of 11.4 million cases of ILD were reported in the BRICS countries. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate of ILD in BRICS showed an upward trend. India consistently reported the highest incidence rate, while China showed the fastest growth rate (107.6%). Russia reported a similar incidence rates for men and women, with a lower age of peak incidence compared to the other four countries. We found the time effect was unfavourable for BRICS in the first decade, especially for Brazil; in China and Brazil, the risk of people born after 1960 has rapidly decreased.

Conclusion: ILD shows a rising incidence in BRICS. with the trends varying based on age and other environmental factors. BRICS should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies for different stages and populations.

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1990-2019年巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非（金砖五国）间质性肺病发病率的时间趋势：年龄段队列分析。

背景和目的：过去几十年来，全球间质性肺病（ILD）的发病率不断上升。然而，很少有研究对巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非（金砖五国）的 ILD 现状和发病趋势进行评估。本研究评估了金砖五国的 ILD 发病率趋势，重点关注 1990 年至 2019 年期间 ILD 的变化：方法：根据《2019 年全球疾病负担研究》（GBD 2019）获得的数据估算发病率。采用年龄-时期-队列模型估算了1990年至2019年对ILD的影响，并计算了净漂移和局部漂移：2019年，金砖国家共报告了1140万例ILD病例。从 1990 年到 2019 年，金砖国家的 ILD 发病率呈上升趋势。印度的发病率一直最高，而中国的增长率最快（107.6%）。俄罗斯报告的男性和女性发病率相似，但与其他四个国家相比，发病高峰年龄较低。我们发现，时间效应在金砖五国的前十年是不利的，尤其是巴西；在中国和巴西，1960年后出生的人的发病风险迅速下降：金砖国家的 ILD 发病率呈上升趋势。金砖国家应针对不同阶段和人群加强具体的公共卫生方法和政策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Respirology 医学-呼吸系统

CiteScore

10.60

自引率

5.80%

发文量

225

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： Respirology is a journal of international standing, publishing peer-reviewed articles of scientific excellence in clinical and clinically-relevant experimental respiratory biology and disease. Fields of research include immunology, intensive and critical care, epidemiology, cell and molecular biology, pathology, pharmacology, physiology, paediatric respiratory medicine, clinical trials, interventional pulmonology and thoracic surgery. The Journal aims to encourage the international exchange of results and publishes papers in the following categories: Original Articles, Editorials, Reviews, and Correspondences. Respirology is the preferred journal of the Thoracic Society of Australia and New Zealand, has been adopted as the preferred English journal of the Japanese Respiratory Society and the Taiwan Society of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine and is an official journal of the World Association for Bronchology and Interventional Pulmonology.