The risk and benefit profiles of US eligible lung cancer screening attendees vs. non-attendees

Abstract

Background The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommend lung-cancer screening for individuals aged 50-80 with ≥20 pack-years and ≤15 quit-years, but uptake is low. The risk and benefit profiles of screening attendees are unknown; consequently, the impact and lost opportunity of ongoing lung-cancer screening in the US remains unclear. Methods We estimated lung-cancer death risk (using the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool) and life gained from screening (using the LYFS-CT model) for individuals 50-79 who ever-smoked in the US-representative 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We compared lung-cancer death risk and life-gained among USPSTF-eligible individuals by screening status (self-reported screened vs not screened in past year), and estimated the number of lung-cancer deaths averted and life-years gained under current screening levels and if everyone eligible was screened. Results USPSTF-eligibility was 33.7% (95%CI:33.1-34.4%), of whom 17.9% (95%CI : 17.0-18.8%) self-reported screening. Screening uptake increased with increasing lung-cancer death risk quintile (Q1 = 5.2% (95%CI : 3.0%-8.8%); Q5 = 21.8% (95%CI : 20.3%-23.3%)) and life-gain from screening quintile (Q1 = 6.2% (95%CI : 3.8%-9.9%); Q5 = 20.8% (95%CI : 19.5%-22.2%)). Screened individuals had higher lung-cancer death risk (Risk Ratio [RR]=1.35, 95%CI : 1.26-1.46) and life-years gained (RR = 1.19, 95%CI : 1.12-1.25) than unscreened individuals. Currently screening averts 19,306 lung-cancer deaths and gains 237,564 life-years; screening everyone eligible would additionally avert 56,956 lung-cancer deaths and gain 751,850 life-years. Two-thirds of USPSTF-lung-eligible women were up-to-date with breast-cancer screening, but only 17.3% attended lung screening in the past year. Conclusions Eligible screening attendees had higher lung-cancer death risk and benefit from screening. Higher rates of screening could substantially increase the number of lung-cancer deaths prevented.