{"title":"Metaphysics of risk and luck","authors":"Jaakko Hirvelä","doi":"10.1111/nous.12516","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"According to the modal account of luck it is a matter of luck that <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> if <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> is true at the actual world, but false in a wide‐range of nearby worlds. According to the modal account of risk, it is risky that <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> if <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> is true at some close world. I argue that the modal accounts of luck and risk do not mesh well together. The views entail that <jats:italic>p</jats:italic> can be both maximally risky and maximally lucky, but there is nothing which is both maximally lucky and maximally risky. I offer a novel theory of risk that fits together with the modal account of luck and demonstrate that it is both extensionally and formally superior to extant proposals.","PeriodicalId":501006,"journal":{"name":"Noûs","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Noûs","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/nous.12516","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
According to the modal account of luck it is a matter of luck that p if p is true at the actual world, but false in a wide‐range of nearby worlds. According to the modal account of risk, it is risky that p if p is true at some close world. I argue that the modal accounts of luck and risk do not mesh well together. The views entail that p can be both maximally risky and maximally lucky, but there is nothing which is both maximally lucky and maximally risky. I offer a novel theory of risk that fits together with the modal account of luck and demonstrate that it is both extensionally and formally superior to extant proposals.
根据 "运气 "的模态解释,如果 p 在实际世界中为真,而在附近的一系列世界中为假,那么 p 就是一个运气问题。根据风险的模态解释,如果p在某个近似世界中为真,那么p就是有风险的。我认为,关于运气和风险的模态解释并不能很好地融合在一起。这两种观点都会导致p既可能是风险最大的,也可能是运气最大的,但没有什么东西既是运气最大的,也是风险最大的。我提出了一种新的风险理论,它与运气的模态论述相吻合,并证明它在外延和形式上都优于现有的建议。