Linear Mixed Model of Virus Disinfection by Free Chlorine to Harmonize Data Collected across Broad Environmental Conditions

Abstract

Despite the critical importance of virus disinfection by chlorine, our fundamental understanding of the relative susceptibility of different viruses to chlorine and robust quantitative relationships between virus disinfection rate constants and environmental parameters remains limited. We conducted a systematic review of virus inactivation by free chlorine and used the resulting data set to develop a linear mixed model that estimates chlorine inactivation rate constants for viruses based on experimental conditions. 570 data points were collected in our systematic review, representing 82 viruses over a broad range of environmental conditions. The harmonized inactivation rate constants under reference conditions (pH = 7.53, T = 20 °C, [Cl^–] < 50 mM) spanned 5 orders of magnitude, ranging from 0.0196 to 1150 L mg^–1 min^–1, and uncovered important trends between viruses. Whereas common surrogate bacteriophage MS2 does not serve as a conservative chlorine disinfection surrogate for many human viruses, CVB5 was one of the most resistant viruses in the data set. The model quantifies the role of pH, temperature, and chloride levels across viruses, and an online tool allows users to estimate rate constants for viruses and conditions of interest. Results from the model identified potential shortcomings in current U.S. EPA drinking water disinfection requirements.