Farnoosh Nik-Ahd, Shoujun Zhao, W John Boscardin, Lufan Wang, Kenneth Covinsky, Anne M Suskind
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Purpose: Bladder outlet obstruction (BOO) is common in older adults. Many older adults who pursue surgery have additional vulnerabilities affecting surgical risk, including frailty. A clinical tool that builds on frailty to predict surgical outcomes for the spectrum of BOO procedures would be helpful to aid in surgical decision-making but does not currently exist.
Materials and methods: Medicare beneficiaries undergoing BOO surgery from 2014 to 2016 were identified and analyzed using the Medicare MedPAR, Outpatient, and Carrier files. Eight different BOO surgery categories were created. Baseline frailty was calculated for each beneficiary using the Claims-Based Frailty Index (CFI). All 93 variables in the CFI and the 17 variables in the Charlson Comorbidity Index were individually entered into stepwise logistic regression models to determine variables most highly predictive of complications. Similar and duplicative variables were combined into categories. Calibration curves and tests of model fit, including C statistics, Brier scores, and Spiegelhalter P values, were calculated to ensure the prognostic accuracy for postoperative complications.
Results: In total, 212,543 beneficiaries were identified. Approximately 42.5% were prefrail (0.15 ≤ CFI < 0.25), 8.7% were mildly frail (0.25 ≤ CFI < 0.35), and 1.2% were moderately-to-severely frail (CFI ≥0.35). Using stepwise logistic regression, 13 distinct prognostic variable categories were identified as the most reliable predictors of postoperative outcomes. Most models demonstrated excellent model discrimination and calibration with high C statistic and Spiegelhalter P values, respectively, and high accuracy with low Brier scores. Calibration curves for each outcome demonstrated excellent model fit.
Conclusions: This novel risk assessment tool may help guide surgical prognostication among this vulnerable population.
期刊介绍:
The Official Journal of the American Urological Association (AUA), and the most widely read and highly cited journal in the field, The Journal of Urology® brings solid coverage of the clinically relevant content needed to stay at the forefront of the dynamic field of urology. This premier journal presents investigative studies on critical areas of research and practice, survey articles providing short condensations of the best and most important urology literature worldwide, and practice-oriented reports on significant clinical observations.