Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease from 2022 to 2050: Projections of Incidence, Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years.

IF 5.4 3区材料科学 Q2 CHEMISTRY, PHYSICAL

ACS Applied Energy Materials Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI:10.1093/ehjqcco/qcae049

Hujuan Shi, Yihang Xia, Yiran Cheng, Pengcheng Liang, Mingmei Cheng, Baoliang Zhang, Zhen Liang, Yanzhong Wang, Wanqing Xie

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aims: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) has been a significant public health issue worldwide. This study aims to predict the global burden of IHD in a timely and comprehensive manner.

Methods and results: Incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for IHD from 1990 to 2021 were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database and three models (linear, exponential, and Poisson regression) were used to estimate their trends over time at the global, regional, and national levels by age, sex, and country groups, with the gross domestic product per capita was applied to adjust the model. The model results revealed that the global burden of IHD is expected to increase continuously by 2050. By 2050, global IHD incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs are projected to reach 67.3 million, 510 million, 16 million, and 302 million, respectively, which represents an increase of 116%, 106%, 80%, and 62% from 2021. Moreover, the results showed that regions with lower socio-demographic index (SDI) bore a greater burden of IHD than those with higher SDI, with men having a higher burden of IHD than women. People over 70 years old account for a major part of the burden of IHD, and premature death of IHD is also becoming more serious.

Conclusion: The global burden of IHD will increase further by 2050, potentially due to population aging and economic disparities. Hence, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention of IHD and formulate targeted strategies according to different SDI regions and special populations.

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2022 年至 2050 年缺血性心脏病的全球负担：对发病率、流行率、死亡人数和残疾调整寿命年数的预测。

目的：缺血性心脏病（IHD）一直是全球重要的公共卫生问题。本研究旨在及时、全面地预测缺血性心脏病的全球负担：从《2021 年全球疾病负担》数据库中提取了 1990 年至 2021 年缺血性心脏病的发病率、流行率、死亡人数和残疾调整生命年（DALYs），并使用三种模型（线性回归、指数回归和泊松回归）按年龄、性别和国家组别估算了其在全球、地区和国家层面的长期趋势，同时应用人均国内生产总值对模型进行了调整。模型结果显示，预计到 2050 年，全球 IHD 负担将持续增加。预计到 2050 年，全球 IHD 发病率、患病率、死亡人数和残疾调整寿命年数将分别达到 6730 万、5.1 亿、1600 万和 3.02 亿，比 2021 年分别增加 116%、106%、80% 和 62%。此外，研究结果表明，社会人口指数（SDI）较低的地区比社会人口指数较高的地区承受着更大的心血管疾病负担，男性的心血管疾病负担高于女性。70岁以上的老年人是造成心肌缺血和心脏病负担的主要人群，心肌缺血和心脏病导致的过早死亡也越来越严重：结论：到 2050 年，由于人口老龄化和经济差异，全球心血管疾病的负担将进一步加重。因此，有必要加强对 IHD 的预防，并根据不同 SDI 地区和特殊人群制定有针对性的策略。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

ACS Applied Energy Materials Materials Science-Materials Chemistry

CiteScore

10.30

自引率

6.20%

发文量

1368

期刊介绍： ACS Applied Energy Materials is an interdisciplinary journal publishing original research covering all aspects of materials, engineering, chemistry, physics and biology relevant to energy conversion and storage. The journal is devoted to reports of new and original experimental and theoretical research of an applied nature that integrate knowledge in the areas of materials, engineering, physics, bioscience, and chemistry into important energy applications.