Temporal trends and projections in the global burden of neck pain: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

IF 5.9 1区 医学 Q1 ANESTHESIOLOGY
PAIN® Pub Date : 2024-12-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-19 DOI:10.1097/j.pain.0000000000003298
Siqing Cheng, Jin Cao, Leying Hou, Shuting Li, Weidi Sun, Shiyi Shan, Jianhui Zhao, Lingzi Yao, Xue Li, Bin He, Peige Song
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Abstract

Abstract: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 of neck pain burden, focusing on age-standardized incidence rates, age-standardized prevalence rates, and age-standardized years lived with disability (YLDs) rates at the global, regional, and national levels. The age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the effects of age (5-99 years), period (1990-2019), and cohort (1893-2012) at the global, regional, and national levels. Future projections for the global burden of neck pain from 2020 to 2044 were estimated using the nordpred age-period-cohort model. From 1990 to 2019, the global incidence, prevalence cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain have increased by 71.89%, 98.21%, and 78.17%, respectively. The joinpoint analysis indicated significant shifts in the global trends of age-standardized neck pain burden, which varied across regions and nations. The age-period-cohort model indicated that the neck pain burden was predominantly concentrated in middle-aged and older age, with period and cohort effects showing minimal variation from 1990 to 2019. Compared with 2019, the incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs counts of neck pain were projected to increase by 134%, 142%, and 140% by 2044. The global burden of neck pain has persisted at a relatively elevated level from 1990 to 2019, with projections indicating a continuing upward trend. Future research is urgently needed to better understand the predictors and clinical course of neck pain and to enhance prevention and management strategies.

全球颈痛负担的时间趋势和预测:2019 年全球疾病负担研究的结果。
摘要:数据来自2019年全球疾病负担研究。采用连接点回归模型分析了1990年至2019年颈部疼痛负担的时间趋势,重点分析了全球、地区和国家层面的年龄标准化发病率、年龄标准化患病率和年龄标准化残疾生活年限(YLDs)率。年龄-时期-队列分析用于估计年龄(5-99 岁)、时期(1990-2019 年)和队列(1893-2012 年)在全球、地区和国家层面的影响。使用 nordpred 年龄-时期-队列模型对 2020 年至 2044 年全球颈痛负担的未来预测进行了估算。从 1990 年到 2019 年,颈痛的全球发病率、流行病例和 YLDs 数量分别增加了 71.89%、98.21% 和 78.17%。接合点分析表明,全球年龄标准化颈痛负担的趋势发生了显著变化,不同地区和国家的情况各不相同。年龄-时期-队列模型表明,颈痛负担主要集中在中老年阶段,从1990年到2019年,时期和队列效应的变化极小。与 2019 年相比,预计到 2044 年,颈痛的发病病例、流行病例和 YLDs 数量将分别增加 134%、142% 和 140%。从 1990 年到 2019 年,全球颈部疼痛的负担一直处于相对较高的水平,预测显示出持续上升的趋势。为了更好地了解颈部疼痛的预测因素和临床病程,并加强预防和管理策略,未来的研究工作迫在眉睫。
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来源期刊
PAIN®
PAIN® 医学-临床神经学
CiteScore
12.50
自引率
8.10%
发文量
242
审稿时长
9 months
期刊介绍: PAIN® is the official publication of the International Association for the Study of Pain and publishes original research on the nature,mechanisms and treatment of pain.PAIN® provides a forum for the dissemination of research in the basic and clinical sciences of multidisciplinary interest.
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