Critical Role of Vertical Radiative Cooling Contrast in Triggering Episodic Deluges in Small-Domain Hothouse Climates

Abstract

Seeley and Wordsworth (2021, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03919-z) showed that in small-domain cloud-resolving simulations the temporal pattern of precipitation transforms in extremely hot climates (≥320 K) from quasi-steady to organized episodic deluges, with outbursts of heavy rain alternating with several dry days. They proposed a mechanism for this transition involving increased water vapor greenhouse effect and solar radiation absorption leading to net lower-tropospheric radiative heating. This heating inhibits lower-tropospheric convection and decouples the boundary layer from the upper troposphere during the dry phase, allowing lower-tropospheric moist static energy to build until it discharges, resulting in a deluge. We perform cloud-resolving simulations in polar night and show that the same transition occurs, implying that some revision of their mechanism is necessary. We perform further tests to show that episodic deluges can occur even if the lower-tropospheric radiative heating rate is negative, as long as the magnitude of the upper-tropospheric radiative cooling is about twice as large. We find that in the episodic deluge regime the period can be predicted from the time for radiation and reevaporation to cool the lower atmosphere.