Caigui Liu , Shikang Xu , Yunxiang Zhu , Xiuxiu Cai
{"title":"Constructing a personalized nomogram model for predicting anastomotic leakage after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer","authors":"Caigui Liu , Shikang Xu , Yunxiang Zhu , Xiuxiu Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.jrras.2024.101009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors for anastomotic leakage (AL) after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer and to construct a nomogram prediction model for AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer. We selected 366 patients with rectal cancer who underwent laparoscopic radical resection for rectal cancer in our hospital between January 2021 and December 2023 as the research subjects. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for AL after laparoscopic radical resection for rectal cancer, and a nomogram model for AL after radical resection for rectal cancer was constructed and validated. Our results showed among 366 patients with rectal cancer, 42 patients developed AL after surgery, and the incidence rate of AL was 11.48%. Logistic regression analysis results showed that gender, preoperative intestinal obstruction, distance between the tumor and the anal edge ≤7 cm, and diabetes were risk factors for AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer (P < 0.05). The calibration curve of the nomogram model for AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer showed that the model's predicted value and actual value fit well, and the area under the curve of the model was 0.859, (95%CI: 0.807–0.912). Overall, gender, preoperative intestinal obstruction, distance between the tumor and the anal verge ≤7 cm, and diabetes are risk factors for AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer. The nomogram model of AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer has high accuracy and has a certain guiding significance for formulating prevention and treatment strategies in advance.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":16920,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1687850724001936/pdfft?md5=96dd96b7ecdab94a60e40048d9000183&pid=1-s2.0-S1687850724001936-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1687850724001936","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to explore the risk factors for anastomotic leakage (AL) after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer and to construct a nomogram prediction model for AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer. We selected 366 patients with rectal cancer who underwent laparoscopic radical resection for rectal cancer in our hospital between January 2021 and December 2023 as the research subjects. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for AL after laparoscopic radical resection for rectal cancer, and a nomogram model for AL after radical resection for rectal cancer was constructed and validated. Our results showed among 366 patients with rectal cancer, 42 patients developed AL after surgery, and the incidence rate of AL was 11.48%. Logistic regression analysis results showed that gender, preoperative intestinal obstruction, distance between the tumor and the anal edge ≤7 cm, and diabetes were risk factors for AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer (P < 0.05). The calibration curve of the nomogram model for AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer showed that the model's predicted value and actual value fit well, and the area under the curve of the model was 0.859, (95%CI: 0.807–0.912). Overall, gender, preoperative intestinal obstruction, distance between the tumor and the anal verge ≤7 cm, and diabetes are risk factors for AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer. The nomogram model of AL after laparoscopic radical resection of rectal cancer has high accuracy and has a certain guiding significance for formulating prevention and treatment strategies in advance.
本研究旨在探讨腹腔镜直肠癌根治术后吻合口漏(AL)的风险因素,并构建腹腔镜直肠癌根治术后AL的提名图预测模型。我们选取了2021年1月至2023年12月期间在我院接受腹腔镜直肠癌根治术的366名直肠癌患者作为研究对象。采用逻辑回归分析筛选直肠癌腹腔镜根治术后AL的危险因素,构建并验证了直肠癌根治术后AL的提名图模型。结果显示,在366名直肠癌患者中,有42名患者术后出现了AL,AL发生率为11.48%。逻辑回归分析结果显示,性别、术前肠梗阻、肿瘤与肛门边缘距离≤7厘米和糖尿病是腹腔镜直肠癌根治术后发生AL的危险因素(P< 0.05)。腹腔镜直肠癌根治术后 AL 的提名图模型校正曲线显示,模型的预测值与实际值拟合良好,模型的曲线下面积为 0.859,(95%CI:0.807-0.912)。总体而言,性别、术前肠梗阻、肿瘤与肛缘距离≤7厘米和糖尿病是腹腔镜直肠癌根治术后发生AL的危险因素。腹腔镜直肠癌根治术后AL的提名图模型具有较高的准确性,对提前制定防治策略具有一定的指导意义。
期刊介绍:
Journal of Radiation Research and Applied Sciences provides a high quality medium for the publication of substantial, original and scientific and technological papers on the development and applications of nuclear, radiation and isotopes in biology, medicine, drugs, biochemistry, microbiology, agriculture, entomology, food technology, chemistry, physics, solid states, engineering, environmental and applied sciences.