Structural Uncertainty Due to Fault Timing: A Multimodel Case Study from the Perth Basin.

Ground water Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI:10.1111/gwat.13429
Kerry Bardot, Martin Lesueur, Adam J Siade, Simon C Lang, James L McCallum
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Abstract

Faults can fundamentally change a groundwater flow regime and represent a major source of uncertainty in groundwater studies. Much research has been devoted to uncertainty around their location and their barrier-conduit behavior. However, fault timing is one aspect of fault uncertainty that appears to be somewhat overlooked. Many faulted models feature consistent layer offsets, thereby presuming that block faulting has occurred recently and almost instantaneously. Additionally, barrier and/or conduit behavior is often shown to extend vertically through all layers when a fault may in fact terminate well below-ground surface. In this study, we create three plausible geological interpretations for a transect in the Perth Basin. Adjacent boreholes show stratigraphic offsets and thickening which indicate faulting; however, fault timing is unknown. Flow modeling demonstrates that the model with the most recent faulting shows profoundly different flow patterns due to aquifer juxtaposition. Additionally, multiple realizations with stochastically generated parameter sets for layer, fault core, and fault damage zone conductivity show that fault timing influences flow more than layer or fault zone conductivity. Finally, fault conduit behavior that penetrates aquitards has significant implications for transport, while fault barrier behavior has surprisingly little. This research advocates for adequate data collection where faults may cause breaches in aquitards due to layer offsets or conduit behavior in the damage zone. It also promotes the use of multiple geological models to address structural uncertainty, and highlights some of the hurdles in doing so such as computational expense and the availability of seamless geological-flow modeling workflows.

断层时间引起的结构不确定性:珀斯盆地多模型案例研究。
断层可以从根本上改变地下水流状态,是地下水研究中不确定因素的主要来源。有关断层位置的不确定性及其阻挡-导流行为的研究已经很多。然而,断层时间是断层不确定性的一个方面,似乎在某种程度上被忽视了。许多断层模型都具有一致的断层层偏移,从而假定块状断层是最近发生的,而且几乎是瞬间发生的。此外,障碍物和/或导管行为通常显示为垂直延伸至所有地层,而实际上断层的终点可能远低于地表。在本研究中,我们为珀斯盆地的一个横断面创建了三种看似合理的地质解释。相邻钻孔显示的地层偏移和增厚表明存在断层,但断层发生的时间尚不清楚。水流模型显示,由于含水层并置,最新断层模型显示出截然不同的水流模式。此外,利用随机生成的地层、断层核心和断层破坏带电导率参数集进行的多次实测表明,断层时间比地层或断层带电导率对水流的影响更大。最后,穿透含水层的断层导管行为对输运有重大影响,而断层阻挡行为的影响则小得令人吃惊。这项研究主张,在断层可能因地层偏移或破坏带的导管行为而导致含水层破裂的地方,应充分收集数据。它还提倡使用多种地质模型来解决结构不确定性问题,并强调了这样做的一些障碍,如计算费用和无缝地质-水流建模工作流程的可用性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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