State fragility, violence and trade: Dangerous trade routes in Colombia

Abstract

We investigate the effect of domestic armed violence brought about by insecurity on the geography of freight mobility and the resulting differential access of regions to global markets. There is a preponderance of evidence from the micro-level analysis of Colombia-U.S. export shipping records that export freight shipping from inland regions was re-routed to avoid exposure to domestic armed violence despite extended landside and maritime shipping distances. The discrete choice model shows that the shipping flow was curbed by the extended re-routing due to localized domestic armed violence. The results highlight that security must be accommodated for sustained freight mobility and export-oriented economic development in the Global South.