Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data

IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Tobi Eniolu Morakinyo , Kazeem Abiodun Ishola , Emmanuel Olaoluwa Eresanya , Mojolaoluwa Toluwalase Daramola , Ifeoluwa Adebowale Balogun
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Nigeria's growing population faces an increasing heat burden with potential health risks. The Universal Thermal Comfort Index (UTCI) links outdoor conditions and human well-being but lacks comprehensive insitu data in developing regions like Nigeria. ERA5-HEAT reanalysis offers a solution with gridded UTCI and MRT data, but validation is crucial. Thus, this study evaluates the ERA5-HEAT UTCI against data from nine Nigerian weather stations and analysed the spatio-temporal patterns of heat stress trends. Results showed that ERA5-HEAT demonstrated reasonable statistical performance and captured the temporal characteristics and patterns of UTCI across Nigeria's climatic zones. Seasonal variations show heat stress levels from "slightly cold" to "moderate" at 0600 LST and "moderate" to "very strong" at 1500 LST. Geographical consistency exists within each season over the decades, with a critical "very strong" heat stress period during March-May. Additionally, there has been an increasing spatial expansion of areas experiencing higher heat stress levels across the country. Latitudinally, stable patterns exist across decades at 0600 LST for each season. Seasons show distinct UTCI values, and at 1500 LST, more variability and category transitions occur along latitudes. Furthermore, the results indicate significant positive trends and occasional non-significant negative trends over the 40-year period. Notably, during 0600 LST, the Guinea and Sahel regions exhibit relatively higher positive trends than the Sudan region in all seasons, whereas at 1500 LST, high positive trends are prominent in DJF and MAM seasons, indicating increased heat stress during peak seasons. These positive deviations in UTCI are associated with adverse effects on human health, including increased mortality rates.

利用ERA5-HEAT再分析数据评估尼日利亚上空热应力的时空特征
尼日利亚不断增长的人口面临着日益沉重的热负担和潜在的健康风险。通用热舒适指数(UTCI)将室外条件与人类福祉联系在一起,但在尼日利亚等发展中地区缺乏全面的现场数据。ERA5-HEAT再分析利用网格化的UTCI和MRT数据提供了一种解决方案,但验证至关重要。因此,本研究根据尼日利亚九个气象站的数据对ERA5-HEATUTCI进行了评估,并分析了热应力趋势的时空模式。结果表明,ERA5-HEAT 具有合理的统计性能,捕捉到了尼日利亚各气候带 UTCI 的时间特征和模式。季节变化显示,在当地时间 0600 时,热应力水平从 "微冷 "到 "中等",在当地时间 1500 时,热应力水平从 "中等 "到 "很强"。几十年来,每个季节都存在地理上的一致性,3 月至 5 月是 "极强 "热应激的关键时期。此外,全国范围内出现较高热应激水平的地区在空间上日益扩大。从纬度上看,每个季节在 0600 LST 的几十年间都存在稳定的模式。季节显示出不同的UTCI 值,在 1500 LST 时,沿纬度出现了更多的变化和类别转换。此外,研究结果表明,在这 40 年间,UTCI 呈显著的正趋势,偶尔也会出现不显著的负趋势。值得注意的是,在 600 LST 期间,几内亚和萨赫勒地区在所有季节都比苏丹地区表现出相对较高的正趋势,而在 1500 LST 期间,高正趋势在 DJF 和 MAM 季节非常突出,表明在高峰季节热应力增加。UTCI 的这些正偏差与对人类健康的不利影响有关,包括死亡率上升。
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来源期刊
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
102
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
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