Assessing Japan's energy poverty vulnerability amidst global conflict impacts using energy poverty possibility indicator

Abstract

This research explores energy poverty and its contextual factors in the Oita and Tokyo prefectures of Japan. The main objective of this research is to examine the household’s energy poverty variations from an affordability perspective due to the unexpected rise in energy prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other influential factors. The study utilizes the Ten-percent rule and K-means clustering algorithm along with fuzzy numbers to propose the Energy Poverty Possibility Indicator. The proposed indicator is used to compare the intensity of energy poverty between Oita and Tokyo households in terms of three classes via 1,298 refined samples collected between 2021 and 2022. Results indicate that sudden spikes in energy costs widen the energy poverty gap to varying degrees across different regions. The results of the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that, in the current energy dilemma, the most effective plan to reduce the energy poverty burden in Tokyo (Oita) is to limit the increase of electricity and gas prices to 14% (9%) and 3% (21%), respectively, along with providing 5500 (9500) Japanese yen monthly in government financial support.