Retaining bus riders: A lifecycle longitudinal analysis of behavioral status transitions from entry to exit

IF 4.8 Q2 TRANSPORTATION

International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ijtst.2024.06.004

Chengcheng Yu , Chao Yang , Wentao Dong , Yitong Chen , Quan Yuan

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Abstract

Amidst a global decline in bus ridership, this study pioneers a longitudinal approach to understanding individual-level transitions and churning in urban bus systems. Utilizing a novel framework that leverages smart card data, we construct and analyze user behavior transition matrices over time, employing Markov processes and the Chapman-Kolmogorov Equation. Our analysis, derived from a 22-month dataset from Shenzhen, reveals a two-stage churning process: users first decrease travel frequency before transitioning to irregular travel patterns. Crucially, this study introduces targeted retention policies, including tiered usage incentives and personalized communication strategies, aimed at different stages of the user lifecycle. By offering free subsequent trips to irregular travelers and combining policy approaches for users at high risk of churning, we provide actionable insights for transit operators to counter the trend of declining ridership.

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留住公交乘客：从上车到下车行为状态转变的生命周期纵向分析

在全球公交客流量下降的背景下，本研究开创了一种纵向方法来理解城市公交系统中个人层面的转变和流动。利用利用智能卡数据的新框架，我们构建和分析用户行为转移矩阵随着时间的推移，采用马尔可夫过程和查普曼-柯尔莫戈洛夫方程。我们的分析来自深圳22个月的数据集，揭示了一个两阶段的流动过程：用户首先减少出行频率，然后过渡到不规则的出行模式。至关重要的是，本研究引入了有针对性的留存策略，包括分层使用激励和个性化沟通策略，针对用户生命周期的不同阶段。通过为不定期的旅客提供免费的后续行程，并结合针对高危用户的政策方法，我们为公交运营商提供了可操作的见解，以应对客流量下降的趋势。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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