Survival after Resection of Malignant Peripheral Nerve Sheath Tumors: introducing and validating a novel type-specific prognostic model

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the performance of currently available risk calculators in a cohort of patients with malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNST) and to create an MPNST-specific prognostic model including type-specific predictors for overall survival (OS). This is a retrospective multicenter cohort study of patients with MPNST from eleven secondary or tertiary centers in The Netherlands, Italy and the USA. All patients diagnosed with primary MPNST who underwent macroscopically complete surgical resection from 2000-2019 were included in this study. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard model for OS was estimated with pre-specified predictors (age, grade, size, NF-1 status, triton status, depth, tumor location and surgical margin). Model performance was assessed for the Sarculator and PERSARC calculators by examining discrimination (C-index) and calibration (calibration plots and observed-expected statistic; O/E-statistic). Internal-external cross-validation by different regions was performed to evaluate the generalizability of the model. A total of 507 patients with primary MPNSTs were included from 11 centers in 7 regions. During follow-up (median 8.7 years), 211 patients died. The C-index was 0.60 (95% CI 0.53-0.67) for both Sarculator and PERSARC. The MPNST-specific model had a pooled C-index of 0.69 (95%CI 0.65-0.73) at validation, with adequate discrimination and calibration across regions. The MPNST-specific MONACO model can be used to predict 3-, 5-, and 10-year OS in patients with primary MPNST who underwent macroscopically complete surgical resection. Further validation may refine the model to inform patients and physicians on prognosis and support them in shared decision-making.