Behavioural tendencies of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet revealed by data–model comparison

Abstract

Integrating ice-sheet models with empirical data pertaining to palaeo-ice sheets promotes advances in the models used in sea-level predictions and can improve our understanding of past ice-sheet behaviour. The large number of empirical constraints on the last British–Irish Ice Sheet make it ideal for model–data comparison experiments. Here, we present an ensemble of 600 model simulations, which are compared with data on former ice-flow extent, flow geometry and deglaciation timing. Simulations which poorly recreate data were ruled out, allowing us to examine the remaining physically realistic simulations which capture the ice sheets' behavioural tendencies. Our results led to a novel reconstruction of behaviour in the data-poor region of the North Sea, insights into the ice stream, potential ice-shelf and readvance dynamics, and the potential locations of peripheral ice caps. We also propose that the asynchronous behaviour of the British–Irish Ice Sheet is a consequence of the geography of the British Isles and the merging and splitting of different bodies of ice through saddle merger and collapse. Furthermore, persistent model–data mismatches highlight the need for model development, especially regarding the physics of ice–ocean interactions. Thus, this work highlights the power of integrating models and data, a long-held aim of palaeoglaciology.