Assessing climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements in the Lower Mahanadi Basin: A CMIP6-based spatiotemporal analysis and future projections

IF 2.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Water and Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI:10.2166/wcc.2024.152

Pushpanjali Kumari, Rahul Kumar Jaiswal, Harendra Prasad Singh

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

High climate change stress escalates agriculture risks, particularly in nations like India heavily reliant on farming. Previous studies focused on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP3) and (CMIP5) scenarios for large river basins, but the heightened risk of local climate changes poses a significant threat to smaller basins, notably affecting crops. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of climate change impacts on paddy crop irrigation in India's Lower Mahanadi Basin, utilizing the latest general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP6, focuses on two emission scenarios, SSP585 and SSP370. Thirteen models were analysed, top six were selected based on statistical criteria like PBIAS, NSE, R2, RSR, and RMSE. Models project climate changes for near- (2025–2050), mid- (2051–2075), and far-future (2076–2100) periods against a baseline (1981–2014), investigating spatiotemporal variations in rainfall, temperature, and irrigation water requirements (IWRs) in the region. In both scenarios, future mean seasonal rainfall is expected to increase compared with the baseline. SSP370 projects a 23.7% rise in minimum rainfall, while maximum rainfall varies by 11.5%. SSP585, on the other hand, projects a 9.53% decrease in maximum IWR and a 28.9% increase in maximum rainfall compared with the baseline. Both scenarios anticipate a 3–4 °C temperature increase in the far-future.

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评估气候变化对下马哈纳迪盆地灌溉用水需求的影响：基于 CMIP6 的时空分析和未来预测

气候变化带来的巨大压力加剧了农业风险，尤其是在像印度这样严重依赖农业的国家。以往的研究侧重于大型流域的耦合模式相互比较项目第三阶段（CMIP3）和第五阶段（CMIP5）情景，但局部气候变化风险的增加对小型流域构成了重大威胁，特别是对农作物的影响。本研究利用 CMIP6 最新的大气环流模型（GCMs），以 SSP585 和 SSP370 两种排放情景为重点，研究了气候变化对印度下马哈纳迪流域水稻灌溉影响的时空动态。对 13 个模型进行了分析，并根据 PBIAS、NSE、R2、RSR 和 RMSE 等统计标准选出了前 6 个模型。模型预测了以基线（1981-2014 年）为基准的近期（2025-2050 年）、中期（2051-2075 年）和远期（2076-2100 年）的气候变化，研究了该地区降雨、温度和灌溉需水量（IWRs）的时空变化。在这两种情景下，与基线相比，未来平均季节降雨量预计都会增加。SSP370 预测最小降雨量增加 23.7%，最大降雨量增加 11.5%。而 SSP585 预测，与基线相比，最大 IWR 减少 9.53%，最大降雨量增加 28.9%。两种情景都预计远期气温将上升 3-4 °C。

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来源期刊

Journal of Water and Climate Change WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

10.70%

发文量

168

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.