Comparative assessment of dry- and humid-heat extremes in a warming climate: Frequency, intensity, and seasonal timing

Abstract

Dry and humid-heat extremes are two types of heat extremes, each exhibiting unique climatological characteristics and impacts on different sectors of society. Using historical simulations and projections produced under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) by models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comparative assessment of the future changes in dry- and humid-heat extremes over global land. Relative to 1995–2014, projections for the mid-term future (2041–2060) and long-term future (2081–2100) periods suggest that most global regions will experience an increase in frequency and intensity of both dry- and humid-heat extremes, especially the tropical regions. In these future periods, the peak occurrences of dry- and humid-heat extremes in mid-to high-latitude regions often occur within the same month. However, there will be a one-to two-month gap between the peak occurrences of dry- and humid-heat extremes in tropical regions, primarily due to monsoonal circulations that introduce variability by causing dry-heat extremes before the onset of monsoons and humid-heat extremes as the monsoons commence. This suggests the need for sector-specific adaptation strategies during different periods of the year for tropical regions. Under both future scenarios, whether considering individual exposure or land area, the average level of exposure to extreme humid-heat days is projected to increase more significantly compared to dry-heat days. The above results highlight the risks associated with the intensification of humid heat in future climate scenarios and warrant the development of effective strategies to mitigate the adverse effects.