External debt crisis & socio-economic fallout: Evidence from the BRICS nations

IF 1.7 Q2 GEOGRAPHY

Regional Science Policy and Practice Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100029

Ajaz Ayoub , Tahir Ahmad Wani , Abid Sultan

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate how external debt influences selected socio-economic variables in a sample of the five biggest emerging nations of the world, i.e., the BRICS block from 1996 to 2020. The data was found to have cross-sectional dependence, which was addressed by using second-generation unit root tests of CIPS and CADF. Cross-sectional dependence was further effectively addressed using the techniques of FMOLS. The study uses the ARDL models to achieve the desired objective. Dumitrescu Hurlin’s (DH) panel causality analysis was adopted to analyze the variables' causality. The study found that, in the long run, External Debt has a positive impact on Unemployment and Life Expectancy while it has a negative impact on Net National Income. The results are also consistent in the short run, except in the case of unemployment, which has been shown to reduce with an increase in the external debt component of the country.

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外债危机与社会经济影响：金砖国家的证据

本文旨在研究 1996 年至 2020 年期间，外债如何影响世界五大新兴国家（即金砖五国）的选定社会经济变量。通过使用 CIPS 和 CADF 的第二代单位根检验，发现数据具有横截面依赖性。使用 FMOLS 技术进一步有效地解决了横截面依赖性问题。本研究使用 ARDL 模型来实现预期目标。采用 Dumitrescu Hurlin（DH）面板因果关系分析法来分析变量的因果关系。研究发现，从长期来看，外债对失业率和预期寿命有积极影响，而对国民净收入有消极影响。这些结果在短期内也是一致的，但失业率除外，失业率随着国家外债的增加而降低。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Regional Science Policy and Practice GEOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

5.90%

发文量

期刊介绍： Regional Science Policy & Practice (RSPP) is the official policy and practitioner orientated journal of the Regional Science Association International. It is an international journal that publishes high quality papers in applied regional science that explore policy and practice issues in regional and local development. It welcomes papers from a range of academic disciplines and practitioners including planning, public policy, geography, economics and environmental science and related fields. Papers should address the interface between academic debates and policy development and application. RSPP provides an opportunity for academics and policy makers to develop a dialogue to identify and explore many of the challenges facing local and regional economies.