{"title":"Monetary policy and inflation rate in the behavior of consumer sentiment in the us. A fractional integration and cointegration analysis","authors":"Manuel Monge , Ana Lazcano , Juan Infante","doi":"10.1016/j.rie.2024.100981","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Consumer sentiment is a relevant tool for experts when it comes to determining the economic situation in a country, making it possible to analyze the spending trend in advance; for this reason, this paper analyzes links between monetary policy and the inflation rate in the behavior of consumer sentiment in the United States. We use methodologies based on fractional integration and fractional cointegration to obtain the stochastic properties of the monthly time series, from December 2019 to August 2022. The results using fractional integration methodologies exhibit a high degree of persistence and the consumer price index (CPI) and consumer sentiment index present a non-mean reversion I(1) behavior. Focusing on the cointegrating part, we conclude from the results that: 1) an increase in the variable “Total Monetary Base” produces an increase in the CPI, 2) the “variation in the total monetary base” in the United States does not affect consumer sentiment, and 3) a positive variation in the consumer sentiment indicator affects the increase in the inflation rate in the United States.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":46094,"journal":{"name":"Research in Economics","volume":"78 3","pages":"Article 100981"},"PeriodicalIF":1.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Research in Economics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090944324000450","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
Consumer sentiment is a relevant tool for experts when it comes to determining the economic situation in a country, making it possible to analyze the spending trend in advance; for this reason, this paper analyzes links between monetary policy and the inflation rate in the behavior of consumer sentiment in the United States. We use methodologies based on fractional integration and fractional cointegration to obtain the stochastic properties of the monthly time series, from December 2019 to August 2022. The results using fractional integration methodologies exhibit a high degree of persistence and the consumer price index (CPI) and consumer sentiment index present a non-mean reversion I(1) behavior. Focusing on the cointegrating part, we conclude from the results that: 1) an increase in the variable “Total Monetary Base” produces an increase in the CPI, 2) the “variation in the total monetary base” in the United States does not affect consumer sentiment, and 3) a positive variation in the consumer sentiment indicator affects the increase in the inflation rate in the United States.
期刊介绍：
Established in 1947, Research in Economics is one of the oldest general-interest economics journals in the world and the main one among those based in Italy. The purpose of the journal is to select original theoretical and empirical articles that will have high impact on the debate in the social sciences; since 1947, it has published important research contributions on a wide range of topics. A summary of our editorial policy is this: the editors make a preliminary assessment of whether the results of a paper, if correct, are worth publishing. If so one of the associate editors reviews the paper: from the reviewer we expect to learn if the paper is understandable and coherent and - within reasonable bounds - the results are correct. We believe that long lags in publication and multiple demands for revision simply slow scientific progress. Our goal is to provide you a definitive answer within one month of submission. We give the editors one week to judge the overall contribution and if acceptable send your paper to an associate editor. We expect the associate editor to provide a more detailed evaluation within three weeks so that the editors can make a final decision before the month expires. In the (rare) case of a revision we allow four months and in the case of conditional acceptance we allow two months to submit the final version. In both cases we expect a cover letter explaining how you met the requirements. For conditional acceptance the editors will verify that the requirements were met. In the case of revision the original associate editor will do so. If the revision cannot be at least conditionally accepted it is rejected: there is no second revision.
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