The compound impact of rainfall, river flow and sea level on a watercourse through a coastal city: Methodology in making

Abstract

Due to climate change, future weather conditions will become more extreme. During recent years, several severe damages have been caused by heavy rainfalls in combination with riverine events. Even though the effects of compound events are known to be influential for flood hazard, the method for investigating these types of events is a novel area of expertise. In this study, a methodology was developed to investigate a watercourse, acting as a part of a stormwater drainage system in an urban coastal area, in a hydrodynamic model to find areas prone to flooding. The method was applied for Ståstorpsån in Trelleborg, Sweden. The model was a unified model for seasonal variability and compound events with scenarios developed based on series of data representing normal values of the boundary conditions rainfall, river flow and sea level. The result was analysed graphically and statistically as a flood hazard. The data used was based on data collected during the past 10 years for rain and sea level and 16 years of simulated river flow. The constructed rain events from gauge data all had a return time of less than 10 years. Therefore, the chosen events are considered to represent normal levels. For Trelleborg, the results from the hydrodynamic model indicate that compound events will increase the flood hazard with anincreasing time horizon. The visual analysis converges with earlier flood events, and hotspots are generally seen around bridges and culverts. For the studied area, there is a large seasonal variation in the flood hazard and with climate change, all seasons will cause more severe flood hazards. The effects experienced during a summer event, which is the most severe event today, are to be expected for all seasons in 2100. The effect seen during summer eventsis a combination of all three drivers. However, rain intensity is likely to be more influential for normal events. When a certain threshold value for sea level is reached, sea level becomes the most influential driver, overtaking the other drivers in importance.