Jay E Diffendorfer, Brian Sergi, Anthony Lopez, Travis Williams, Michael Gleason, Zach Ancona, Wesley Cole
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Projections for deep decarbonization require large amounts of solar energy, which may compete with other land uses such as agriculture, urbanization, and conservation of natural lands. Existing capacity expansion models do not integrate land use land cover change (LULC) dynamics into projections. We explored the interaction between projected LULC, solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment, and solar impacts on natural lands and croplands by integrating projections of LULC with a model that can project future deployment of solar PV with high spatial resolution for the conterminous United States. We used scenarios of LULC projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios from 2010 to 2050 and two electricity grid scenarios to model future PV deployment and compared those results against a baseline that held 2010 land cover constant through 2050. Though solar PV's overall technical potential was minimally impacted by LULC scenarios, deployed PV varied by -16.5 to 11.6 % in 2050 from the baseline scenario. Total land requirements for projected PV were similar to other studies, but measures of PV impacts on natural systems depended on the underlying land change dynamics occurring in a scenario. The solar PV deployed through 2050 resulted in 1.1 %-2.4 % of croplands and 0.3 %-0.7 % of natural lands being converted to PV. However, the deepest understanding of PV impacts and interactions with land cover emerged when the complete net gains and losses from all land cover change dynamics, including PV, were integrated. For example, one of the four LULC projections allows for high solar development and a net gain in natural lands, even though PV drives a larger percentage of natural land conversion. This paper shows that integrating land cover change dynamics with energy expansion models generates new insights into trade offs between decarbonization, impacts of renewables, and ongoing land cover change.
期刊介绍:
The Science of the Total Environment is an international journal dedicated to scientific research on the environment and its interaction with humanity. It covers a wide range of disciplines and seeks to publish innovative, hypothesis-driven, and impactful research that explores the entire environment, including the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere.
The journal's updated Aims & Scope emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary environmental research with broad impact. Priority is given to studies that advance fundamental understanding and explore the interconnectedness of multiple environmental spheres. Field studies are preferred, while laboratory experiments must demonstrate significant methodological advancements or mechanistic insights with direct relevance to the environment.