Opportunity begets opportunity to drive macroevolutionary dynamics of a diverse lizard radiation

Abstract

Evolution proceeds unevenly across the tree of life, with some lineages accumulating diversity more rapidly than others. Explaining this disparity is challenging as similar evolutionary triggers often do not result in analogous shifts across the tree, and similar shifts may reflect different evolutionary triggers. We used a combination of approaches to directly consider such context-dependency and untangle the complex network of processes that shape macroevolutionary dynamics, focusing on Pleurodonta, a diverse radiation of lizards. Our approach shows that some lineage-wide signatures are lost when conditioned on sublineages: while viviparity appears to accelerate diversification, its effect size is overestimated by its association with the Andean mountains. Conversely, some signals that erode at broader phylogenetic scales emerge at shallower ones. Mountains, in general, do not affect speciation rates; rather, the occurrence in the Andean mountains specifically promotes diversification. Likewise, the evolution of larger sizes catalyzes diversification rates, but only within certain ecological and geographical settings. We caution that conventional methods of fitting models to entire trees may mistakenly assign diversification heterogeneity to specific factors despite evidence against their plausibility. Our study takes a significant stride toward disentangling confounding factors and identifying plausible sources of ecological opportunities in the diversification of large evolutionary radiations.