Range-wide prediction of habitat suitability for king cobras under current and future scenarios 在当前和未来情景下眼镜王蛇栖息地适宜性的全域预测

Abstract

Ophiophagus hannah, commonly known as the king cobra, is listed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and is protected under national laws in most countries. This charismatic species faces multiple threats, including habitat loss, human persecution, illegal trafficking, and climate change. Due to the king cobra's sensitivity to environmental conditions, its population status and trends are barely understood. This study used the MaxEnt algorithm to predict the potential distribution of king cobras across Asia, a method that has been successfully implemented in modeling distributions of various species in the region. The findings showed that Evergreen Broadleaf Trees emerged as the most influential variable for the distribution of Ophiophagus hannah with a 27.3% contribution, followed by the Mean Diurnal Range and Urban/Built-up areas. Jackknife analysis identified the Mean Diurnal Range as having the highest testing gain. Approximately 413,268 km² were found to have the most suitable climatic conditions for sustaining this species. Countries such as India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Malaysia were identified as having favorable conditions. Under the future climate scenario SSP5-8.5, the extent of suitable habitats (maximum) for the king cobra is projected to decrease in the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100. This report provides valuable insights that could inform conservation strategies for O. hannah in these regions.