Setbacks, Shutdowns, and Overruns

IF 6.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Econometrica Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI:10.3982/ECTA21548

Felix Zhiyu Feng, Curtis R. Taylor, Mark M. Westerfield, Feifan Zhang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We investigate optimal project management in a setting plagued by an indefinite number of setbacks that are discovered en route to project completion. The contractor can cover up delays in progress due to shirking either by making false claims of setbacks or by postponing the reports of real ones. The sponsor optimally induces work and honest reporting via a soft deadline and a reward for completion that specifies a bonus for early delivery. Late-stage setbacks trigger randomization between minimally feasible project extension and (inefficient) cancellation. Because extensions may be granted repeatedly, arbitrarily large overruns in schedule and budget are possible after which the project may still be canceled.

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挫折、停工和超支

我们研究了在项目竣工过程中发现的不定数量挫折的情况下的最佳项目管理。承包商可以通过谎报挫折或推迟报告真实挫折来掩盖由于推诿造成的进度延误。发起人可以通过软截止日期和对提前完成项目的奖励来优化工作和诚实报告。项目后期的挫折会触发项目延期（最小可行）和取消（低效）之间的随机化。由于延期可能会被反复批准，因此进度和预算可能会出现任意大的超支，之后项目仍有可能被取消。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Econometrica 社会科学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics. Econometrica maintains a long tradition that submitted articles are refereed carefully and that detailed and thoughtful referee reports are provided to the author as an aid to scientific research, thus ensuring the high calibre of papers found in Econometrica. An international board of editors, together with the referees it has selected, has succeeded in substantially reducing editorial turnaround time, thereby encouraging submissions of the highest quality. We strongly encourage recent Ph. D. graduates to submit their work to Econometrica. Our policy is to take into account the fact that recent graduates are less experienced in the process of writing and submitting papers.