Urban air mobility for time-sensitive goods with explicit customer preferences: A case study on Chengdu

Abstract

The technological innovation has gradually turned UAV delivery services in urban areas into a reality. As crucial stakeholders, urban residents have a growing demand for goods delivery, and they are in the process of understanding this new technology. Understanding their acceptance and quantifying their preferences can effectively promote the development of UAV delivery systems. While scholars have conducted extensive research on this topic, there remains a lack of detailed analysis regarding consumer heterogeneity and specific service experiences, especially in China, which is one of the largest potential markets for urban air mobility and UAV applications. This study addresses pertinent questions, including in high-density urban areas, the potential user characteristics of UAVs for instant delivery, the types of goods users prefer UAVs to transport, and how users prefer goods to be handed over to them. Conducted in Chengdu, a major city in southwest China, the survey collected 2,008 validated responses, encompassing potential users of urban air delivery. Employing a discrete choice model (DCM) for quantitative analysis, market share and willingness to pay were derived based on field data, with the identified issues designed as attribute variables integrated into the model. The findings reveal that under suitable services, the UAV market share can reach 21.2%, while electric bike and car deliveries persist as the mainstream in on-demand delivery, constituting 51.8% and 27.0%, respectively. Notably, consumers’ choices are significantly influenced by their socioeconomic status and key indicators. As the cost of UAVs increases relative to electric bike and car deliveries, respondents tend to prefer the electric bike, indicating that UAVs are not the preferred substitute. However, when the price falls below 9.5 CNY, UAVs become more appealing than cars. The identification of five latent classes reflects distinctly different user attitudes towards delivery services in China. The analysis of key attribute elasticity guides adjustments in delivery efficiency and pricing, aligning with market conditions. These results elucidate the intriguing psychology of Chengdu consumers when embracing this new technology. For actively accepting consumers, the hope is for UAV delivery to offer a more convenient service experience, with customized services especially between the arrival of UAVs and pick-up emerging as a distinctive feature. We also discusses regional heterogeneity and implications of the pandemic. As an effective supplement to existing studies, we posit that when UAVs meet customer demands for affordability and high-quality service, they will emerge as the primary force in Chengdu’s future urban air market.