Asymmetric effects between economic development and fertility: What do 140 years of data tell us?

Abstract

This study investigates the historical nexus between economic development and fertility in eight highly advanced European economies between 1870 and 2014. We employ the method of moments quantile regression (MMQR), which enables us to examine the impact of the different levels of economic development on fertility. We also consider the role of mortality and marriage to gain a more comprehensive view of the relationship. Our results from the linear and panel quantile models suggest an inverse J-shaped pattern between economic development and fertility. However, the inverse J-shape vanishes when time effects are considered in the quantile regression model, while the impact of mortality and marriage on fertility is reinforced. To further elaborate our findings, we also employ a nonparametric panel estimation method with time-varying coefficients. Our results also suggest that periods characterized by a positive economic development effect on fertility rarely coincide with an upward movement in the observed fertility trajectory. We infer that economic development per se did not drive either the historical baby-boom period or the recent fertility rebound.