Leveraging unsupervised machine learning to examine Women's vulnerability to climate change

IF 3.3 2区 经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY
German Caruso, Valerie Mueller, Alexis Villacis
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We provide an application of machine learning to identify the distributional consequences of climate change in Malawi. We compare climate impact estimates based on drought indicators established objectively from the k‐means algorithm to more traditional measures. Young women affected by drought were 5 percentage points more likely to be married by 18 than those living in nondrought areas. Our approach generates robust results when varying the number of clusters and definition of treatment status. In some cases, we find the design using k‐means to define treatment is more likely to satisfy the assumptions underlying the difference‐in‐differences strategy than when using arbitrary thresholds. Projections from the estimates indicate future drought risk may lead to larger declines in labor productivity due to women's engagement in early age marriage than other factors affecting their participation rates. Under the extreme representative concentration pathway scenario, drought exposure encourages the exit of 3.3 million women workers by 2100.
利用无监督机器学习研究妇女面对气候变化的脆弱性
我们应用机器学习来确定气候变化在马拉维造成的分布性后果。我们将根据 k-means 算法客观确定的干旱指标得出的气候影响估计值与更传统的测量方法进行了比较。与生活在非干旱地区的年轻女性相比,受干旱影响的年轻女性在 18 岁之前结婚的可能性要高出 5 个百分点。当改变聚类的数量和处理状态的定义时,我们的方法会产生稳健的结果。在某些情况下,我们发现与使用任意阈值的方法相比,使用 k-means 方法定义治疗的设计更有可能满足差分策略的基本假设。估算结果表明,与影响妇女参与率的其他因素相比,未来的干旱风险可能会导致妇女参与早婚而导致劳动生产率大幅下降。在极端代表性集中路径情景下,到 2100 年,干旱风险将导致 330 万名女工退出劳动市场。
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来源期刊
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY-
CiteScore
10.70
自引率
6.90%
发文量
117
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy provides a forum to address contemporary and emerging policy issues within an economic framework that informs the decision-making and policy-making community. AEPP welcomes submissions related to the economics of public policy themes associated with agriculture; animal, plant, and human health; energy; environment; food and consumer behavior; international development; natural hazards; natural resources; population and migration; and regional and rural development.
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