{"title":"Reconstruction of drought at the desert margin in northern China over the past 279 years using tree-ring widths","authors":"Yuxin Liu, Heli Zhang, Feng Chen, Martín Hadad, Fidel Roig, Xiaoen Zhao, Shijie Wang, Weipeng Yue, Youping Chen","doi":"10.1007/s11676-024-01741-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Unstable environments intensify the frequency of extreme disasters. Long-term climate changes can lead to agricultural and ecological degradation that threatens population sustainability. To better understand past climatic events and consequences, here we present a reconstruction of the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) from September to August for the desert margins of northern China, dating back to 1742. The reconstruction accounts for 42.9% of the variation of meteorological data between 1951 and 2020. Our spatial correlation analyses showed significant correlations between scPDSI, runoff, and precipitation. Over the past 279 years, the study area has undergone nine dry and eight wet periods, with the most severe climate extremes between the 1850s and 1890s. This period of prolonged drought in northeastern China coincided with the combined impacts of climatic factors and human influences, contributing to the fall of the Qing Dynasty. Analysis of periodicity and anomalies in sea surface temperatures indicate a strong association between wet and dry cycles and El Niño-Southern Oscillations. Our findings offer insights into long-term dry and wet fluctuations at the desert margins in northern China and elucidate the relationship between drought and the dynamics of civilizations. They also highlight the potential impact of extremes in climate on modern society, especially under the four projected shared socioeconomic pathways climatic scenarios, which predict worsening droughts in northern China.</p>","PeriodicalId":15830,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forestry Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forestry Research","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11676-024-01741-7","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"FORESTRY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Unstable environments intensify the frequency of extreme disasters. Long-term climate changes can lead to agricultural and ecological degradation that threatens population sustainability. To better understand past climatic events and consequences, here we present a reconstruction of the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI) from September to August for the desert margins of northern China, dating back to 1742. The reconstruction accounts for 42.9% of the variation of meteorological data between 1951 and 2020. Our spatial correlation analyses showed significant correlations between scPDSI, runoff, and precipitation. Over the past 279 years, the study area has undergone nine dry and eight wet periods, with the most severe climate extremes between the 1850s and 1890s. This period of prolonged drought in northeastern China coincided with the combined impacts of climatic factors and human influences, contributing to the fall of the Qing Dynasty. Analysis of periodicity and anomalies in sea surface temperatures indicate a strong association between wet and dry cycles and El Niño-Southern Oscillations. Our findings offer insights into long-term dry and wet fluctuations at the desert margins in northern China and elucidate the relationship between drought and the dynamics of civilizations. They also highlight the potential impact of extremes in climate on modern society, especially under the four projected shared socioeconomic pathways climatic scenarios, which predict worsening droughts in northern China.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Forestry Research (JFR), founded in 1990, is a peer-reviewed quarterly journal in English. JFR has rapidly emerged as an international journal published by Northeast Forestry University and Ecological Society of China in collaboration with Springer Verlag. The journal publishes scientific articles related to forestry for a broad range of international scientists, forest managers and practitioners.The scope of the journal covers the following five thematic categories and 20 subjects:
Basic Science of Forestry,
Forest biometrics,
Forest soils,
Forest hydrology,
Tree physiology,
Forest biomass, carbon, and bioenergy,
Forest biotechnology and molecular biology,
Forest Ecology,
Forest ecology,
Forest ecological services,
Restoration ecology,
Forest adaptation to climate change,
Wildlife ecology and management,
Silviculture and Forest Management,
Forest genetics and tree breeding,
Silviculture,
Forest RS, GIS, and modeling,
Forest management,
Forest Protection,
Forest entomology and pathology,
Forest fire,
Forest resources conservation,
Forest health monitoring and assessment,
Wood Science and Technology,
Wood Science and Technology.