Hypothesis testing for performance evaluation of probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts

IF 4 3区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geoscience Letters Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI:10.1186/s40562-024-00341-x

Ke-Sheng Cheng, Gwo‑Hsing Yu, Yuan-Li Tai, Kuo-Chan Huang, Sheng‑Fu Tsai, Dong‑Hong Wu, Yun-Ching Lin, Ching-Teng Lee, Tzu-Ting Lo

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Abstract

A hypothesis testing approach, based on the theorem of probability integral transformation and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov one-sample test, for performance evaluation of probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts is proposed in this study. By considering the probability distribution of monthly rainfalls, the approach transforms the tercile forecast probabilities into a forecast distribution and tests whether the observed data truly come from the forecast distribution. The proposed approach provides not only a quantitative measure for performance evaluation but also a cumulative probability plot for insightful interpretations of forecast characteristics such as overconfident, underconfident, mean-overestimated, and mean-underestimated. The approach has been applied for the performance evaluation of probabilistic season rainfall forecasts in northern Taiwan, and it was found that the forecast performance is seasonal dependent. Probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts of the Meiyu season are likely to be overconfident and mean-underestimated, while forecasts of the winter-to-spring season are overconfident. A relatively good forecast performance is observed for the summer season.

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概率季节性降雨预报性能评估的假设检验

本研究提出了一种基于概率积分变换定理和 Kolmogorov-Smirnov 单样本检验的假设检验方法，用于概率季节性降雨预报的性能评估。通过考虑月降雨量的概率分布，该方法将三次预报概率转化为预报分布，并检验观测数据是否真正来自预报分布。所提出的方法不仅提供了用于性能评估的定量指标，还提供了累积概率图，用于深入解释预报特征，如过度预报、预报不足、平均高估和平均低估。该方法已应用于台湾北部概率季节降雨预报的性能评估，结果发现预报性能与季节有关。梅雨季节的概率季节降雨预报可能过于自信和平均低估，而冬春季节的预报则过于自信。夏季的预报表现相对较好。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Geoscience Letters Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

4.90

自引率

2.50%

发文量

审稿时长

25 weeks

期刊介绍： Geoscience Letters is the official journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, and a fully open access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand. The journal publishes original, innovative and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment, the planetary and space sciences. Contributions reflect the eight scientific sections of the AOGS: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeosciences, Hydrological Sciences, Interdisciplinary Geosciences, Ocean Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Solar and Terrestrial Sciences, and Solid Earth Sciences. Geoscience Letters focuses on cutting-edge fundamental and applied research in the broad field of the geosciences, including the applications of geoscience research to societal problems. This journal is Open Access, providing rapid electronic publication of high-quality, peer-reviewed scientific contributions.