Analysis of temperature and rainfall trends in Beni City, Democratic Republic of Congo

IF 1.3 4区地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Earth System Science Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI:10.1007/s12040-024-02308-0

Vithundwa Richard Posite, Bayongwa Samuel Ahana, Chérifa Abdelbaki, Abdellatif Zerga, Awoke Guadie

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Abstract

Understanding local-scale climate change is vital to developing adaptive strategies in the face of the century-old river of global warming posing a threat to humanity. This study focuses on assessing temperature and rainfall trends in Beni City, using monthly and yearly (1990–2020) weather station data. Climate variability was analysed using the standardised variable index, and rainfall concentration patterns were highlighted using the precipitation concentration index (PCI). The climate trends were analysed by using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. The findings indicated that the T_min is 18.82±0.62°C, and T_max is 28.22±0.75°C, resulting in a mean temperature of 23.52±0.57°C. The annual and seasonal temperature trend analysis indicated that a significant warming trend was observed in both T_min and T_max. Beni City's precipitation trends also showed a mean annual rainfall of 1988.38±416.59 mm, with significant year-to-year variations. Annual rainfall analysis exhibited a slight upward trend; meanwhile, the seasonal trend analysis revealed an increase in rainfall during Mar–Apr–May (MAM) and Aug–Sep–Oct–Nov (ASON) seasons with roughly no discernible trend during Dec–Jan–Feb (DJF), and Jun–Jul (JJ) seasons. Overall, annual and seasonal analyses of specific temperature and rainfall patterns have shown pronounced warming and increased rainfall in the study area.

Research highlights

The study reveals significant trends in temperature and rainfall in Beni city, Democratic Republic of Congo, over a 31-year period (1990–2020).
Both minimum and maximum temperatures show significant warming trends, with the most recent decade witnessing substantial increases in maximum temperatures.
Rainfall patterns exhibit variations, with a slight upward trend in annual rainfall, although the 1990s experienced a notable decrease in precipitation.
Monthly analyses highlight specific temperature and rainfall patterns with some months experiencing pronounced warming and increased rainfall.

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刚果民主共和国贝尼市气温和降雨趋势分析

摘要面对全球变暖对人类构成威胁的百年大河，了解当地尺度的气候变化对制定适应战略至关重要。本研究利用每月和每年（1990-2020 年）的气象站数据，重点评估贝尼市的气温和降雨趋势。使用标准化变量指数分析气候变异性，使用降水集中指数（PCI）突出降水集中模式。使用 Mann-Kendall 检验和 Sen 的斜率估计器分析了气候趋势。结果表明，Tmin 为 18.82±0.62°C，Tmax 为 28.22±0.75°C，平均气温为 23.52±0.57°C。年和季节气温趋势分析表明，Tmin 和 Tmax 均有明显的变暖趋势。贝尼市的降水趋势也显示，年平均降水量为 1988.38±416.59 毫米，年际变化显著。年降雨量分析显示出轻微的上升趋势；同时，季节趋势分析显示，3 月-4 月-5 月（MAM）和 8 月-9 月-10 月-11 月（ASON）季节的降雨量有所增加，而 12 月-1 月-2 月（DJF）和 6 月-7 月（JJ）季节的降雨量基本没有明显趋势。总体而言，对特定气温和降雨模式的年度和季节分析表明，该研究地区的气温明显升高，降雨量明显增加。研究重点该研究揭示了刚果民主共和国贝尼市 31 年间（1990-2020 年）气温和降雨量的显著变化趋势。月度分析突出显示了特定的气温和降雨模式，有些月份的气温明显升高，降雨量明显增加。

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来源期刊

Journal of Earth System Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

5.30%

发文量

226

期刊介绍： The Journal of Earth System Science, an International Journal, was earlier a part of the Proceedings of the Indian Academy of Sciences – Section A begun in 1934, and later split in 1978 into theme journals. This journal was published as Proceedings – Earth and Planetary Sciences since 1978, and in 2005 was renamed ‘Journal of Earth System Science’. The journal is highly inter-disciplinary and publishes scholarly research – new data, ideas, and conceptual advances – in Earth System Science. The focus is on the evolution of the Earth as a system: manuscripts describing changes of anthropogenic origin in a limited region are not considered unless they go beyond describing the changes to include an analysis of earth-system processes. The journal''s scope includes the solid earth (geosphere), the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (including cryosphere), and the biosphere; it also addresses related aspects of planetary and space sciences. Contributions pertaining to the Indian sub- continent and the surrounding Indian-Ocean region are particularly welcome. Given that a large number of manuscripts report either observations or model results for a limited domain, manuscripts intended for publication in JESS are expected to fulfill at least one of the following three criteria. The data should be of relevance and should be of statistically significant size and from a region from where such data are sparse. If the data are from a well-sampled region, the data size should be considerable and advance our knowledge of the region. A model study is carried out to explain observations reported either in the same manuscript or in the literature. The analysis, whether of data or with models, is novel and the inferences advance the current knowledge.