Managing the effects of drought through the use of risk reduction strategy in the agricultural sector of Iran

Abstract

Drought is one of the most significant and complex climate risks, with profound effects on reducing agricultural production and exacerbating poverty and food insecurity worldwide in the absence of effective mitigation measures. Climate assessments indicate that drought will affect the majority of world regions in the future, with agricultural-dependent communities bearing the brunt of its impacts. Therefore, managing measures to mitigate the effects of drought is crucial in this regard. This research aims to (1) examine the adoption status of adaptation strategies and (2) identify the influential factors affecting the adoption of drought mitigation measures in Iran. The study population consisted of all rural agricultural households in Kerman Province (southeastern Iran). In order to accurately select the studied samples, calculation of drought severity was done based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In this research, an extended version of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), incorporating new variables including trust, self-efficacy, social influence, facilitating conditions, perceived risk, resistance to use, and performance expectancy, was utilized as the theoretical framework. Data analysis was conducted using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The results revealed that all adaptation strategies of farmers under drought conditions were categorized into five classes: Social activities (SA), Physical infrastructure management (PIM), Financial management (FIM), Farm management (FM), Irrigation and water management (IWM), and Crop management (CM). Furthermore, SEM results indicated that all hypothesized relationships in this context were significant, and the research variables explained 58% of the variance in the adoption of adaptive behaviors. Lastly, considering that trust had the most significant effect on the adoption of adaptation measures, policymakers in this field are recommended to increase farmers’ trust in these strategies by conducting thorough needs assessments and identifying the most effective strategies. Moreover, organizing appropriate workshops and training courses can enhance farmers’ awareness and understanding of adaptation measures for mitigating the impacts of drought.