Changes in cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the Framingham risk model in the Hong Kong population between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015: data from Population Health Surveys.
B Y C Sung, E H M Tang, L Bedford, C K H Wong, E T Y Tse, E Y T Yu, B M Y Cheung, C L K Lam
{"title":"Changes in cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the Framingham risk model in the Hong Kong population between 2003-2005 and 2014-2015: data from Population Health Surveys.","authors":"B Y C Sung, E H M Tang, L Bedford, C K H Wong, E T Y Tse, E Y T Yu, B M Y Cheung, C L K Lam","doi":"10.12809/hkmj2210513","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>The Framingham risk model estimates a person's 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study used this model to calculate the changes in sex- and age-specific CVD risks in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 compared with two previous surveys conducted during 2003 and 2005, namely, PHS 2003/2004 and Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This study included individuals aged 30 to 74 years from PHS 2014/15 (n=1662; n=4 445 868 after population weighting) and PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005 (n=818; n=3 495 074 after population weighting) with complete data for calculating the risk of CVD predicted by the Framingham model. Sex-specific CVD risks were calculated based on age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habit, diabetic status, and hypertension treatment. Mean sex- and age-specific CVD risks were calculated; differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were compared by independent <i>t</i> tests.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The difference in 10-year CVD risk from 2003-2005 to 2014-2015 was not statistically significant (10.2% vs 10.6%; P=0.29). After age standardisation according to World Health Organization world standard population data, a small decrease in CVD risk was observed, from 9.4% in 2003-2005 to 8.8% in 2014-2015. Analysis according to age-group showed that more participants aged 65 to 74 years were considered high risk in 2003 to 2005 (2003-2005: 66.8% vs 2014-2015: 53.1%; P=0.028). This difference may be due to the decrease in smokers among men (2003-2005: 30.5% vs 2014-2015: 24.0%; P<0.001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>From 2003-2005 to 2014-2015, there was a small decrease in age-standardised 10-year CVD risk. A holistic public health approach simultaneously targeting multiple risk factors is needed to achieve greater decreases in CVD risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":48828,"journal":{"name":"Hong Kong Medical Journal","volume":" ","pages":"202-208"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Hong Kong Medical Journal","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.12809/hkmj2210513","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/5/29 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Introduction: The Framingham risk model estimates a person's 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. This study used this model to calculate the changes in sex- and age-specific CVD risks in the Hong Kong Population Health Survey (PHS) 2014/15 compared with two previous surveys conducted during 2003 and 2005, namely, PHS 2003/2004 and Heart Health Survey (HHS) 2004/2005.
Methods: This study included individuals aged 30 to 74 years from PHS 2014/15 (n=1662; n=4 445 868 after population weighting) and PHS 2003/2004 and HHS 2004/2005 (n=818; n=3 495 074 after population weighting) with complete data for calculating the risk of CVD predicted by the Framingham model. Sex-specific CVD risks were calculated based on age, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, mean systolic blood pressure, smoking habit, diabetic status, and hypertension treatment. Mean sex- and age-specific CVD risks were calculated; differences in CVD risk between the two surveys were compared by independent t tests.
Results: The difference in 10-year CVD risk from 2003-2005 to 2014-2015 was not statistically significant (10.2% vs 10.6%; P=0.29). After age standardisation according to World Health Organization world standard population data, a small decrease in CVD risk was observed, from 9.4% in 2003-2005 to 8.8% in 2014-2015. Analysis according to age-group showed that more participants aged 65 to 74 years were considered high risk in 2003 to 2005 (2003-2005: 66.8% vs 2014-2015: 53.1%; P=0.028). This difference may be due to the decrease in smokers among men (2003-2005: 30.5% vs 2014-2015: 24.0%; P<0.001).
Conclusion: From 2003-2005 to 2014-2015, there was a small decrease in age-standardised 10-year CVD risk. A holistic public health approach simultaneously targeting multiple risk factors is needed to achieve greater decreases in CVD risk.
介绍：弗雷明汉风险模型可估算一个人10年的心血管疾病（CVD）风险。本研究使用该模型计算香港人口健康调查（PHS）2014/15与2003年和2005年进行的两次人口健康调查（PHS 2003/2004和心脏健康调查（HHS）2004/2005）相比，不同性别和年龄的心血管疾病风险的变化：本研究纳入了《公共卫生调查2014/15》（样本数=1662；人口加权后样本数=4 445 868）、《公共卫生调查2003/2004》和《心脏健康调查2004/2005》（样本数=818；人口加权后样本数=3 495 074）中年龄介于30至74岁、数据完整的个人，用于计算弗莱明汉模型预测的心血管疾病风险。性别特异性心血管疾病风险是根据年龄、总胆固醇和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇水平、平均收缩压、吸烟习惯、糖尿病状态和高血压治疗情况计算得出的。计算性别和年龄特异性心血管疾病风险的平均值；通过独立 t 检验比较两次调查之间心血管疾病风险的差异：2003-2005年至2014-2015年的10年心血管疾病风险差异无统计学意义（10.2% vs 10.6%；P=0.29）。根据世界卫生组织世界标准人口数据进行年龄标准化后，观察到心血管疾病风险略有下降，从2003-2005年的9.4%降至2014-2015年的8.8%。根据年龄组进行的分析表明，2003-2005年有更多65至74岁的参与者被认为是高风险人群（2003-2005年：66.8% vs 2014-2015年：53.1%；P=0.028）。这一差异可能是由于男性吸烟者减少所致（2003-2005 年：30.5% vs 2014-2015 年：24.0%；P=0.028）：从2003-2005年到2014-2015年，年龄标准化的10年心血管疾病风险略有下降。要想进一步降低心血管疾病风险，需要同时针对多种风险因素采取综合公共卫生方法。
期刊介绍：
The HKMJ is a Hong Kong-based, peer-reviewed, general medical journal which is circulated to 6000 readers, including all members of the HKMA and Fellows of the HKAM. The HKMJ publishes original research papers, review articles, medical practice papers, case reports, editorials, commentaries, book reviews, and letters to the Editor. Topics of interest include all subjects that relate to clinical practice and research in all branches of medicine. The HKMJ welcomes manuscripts from authors, but usually solicits reviews. Proposals for review papers can be sent to the Managing Editor directly. Please refer to the contact information of the Editorial Office.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
