The relationship between freight train length and the risk of derailment.

IF 3 3区医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-28 DOI:10.1111/risa.14312

Peter M Madsen, Robin L Dillon, Konstantinos P Triantis, Joseph A Bradley

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In recent years, longer and heavier trains have become more common, primarily driven by efficiency and cost-saving measures in the railroad industry. Regulation of train length is currently under consideration in the United States at both the federal and state levels, because of concerns that longer trains may have a higher risk of derailment, but the relationship between train length and risk of derailment is not yet well understood. In this study, we use data on freight train accidents during the 2013-2022 period from the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Rail Equipment Accident and Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Accident databases to estimate the relationship between freight train length and the risk of derailment. We determine that longer trains do have a greater risk of derailment. Based on our analysis, running 100-car trains is associated with 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.12) times the derailment odds of running 50-car trains (or a 11% increase), even accounting for the fact that only half as many 100-car trains would need to run. For 200-car trains, the odds increase by 24% (odds ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.20-1.28), again accounting for the need for fewer trains. Understanding derailment risk is an important component for evaluating the overall safety of the rail system and for the future development and regulation of freight rail transportation. Given the limitations of the current data on freight train length, this study provides an important step toward such an understanding.

查看原文本刊更多论文

货运列车长度与脱轨风险之间的关系。

近年来，火车越来越长、越来越重，这主要是受铁路行业提高效率和节约成本措施的影响。目前，美国联邦和各州都在考虑对列车长度进行监管，因为人们担心更长的列车可能会有更高的脱轨风险，但人们对列车长度与脱轨风险之间的关系还不甚了解。在本研究中，我们利用联邦铁路管理局（FRA）铁路设备事故和公路铁路道口事故数据库中 2013-2022 年期间的货运列车事故数据，估算货运列车长度与脱轨风险之间的关系。我们确定，较长的列车脱轨风险确实较大。根据我们的分析，即使考虑到只需运行一半的 100 卡列车，运行 100 卡列车的脱轨几率也是运行 50 卡列车的 1.11 倍（95% 置信区间：1.10-1.12）（或增加 11%）。对于 200 节车厢的列车，出轨几率增加了 24%（几率比 1.24，95% 置信区间：1.20-1.28），同样考虑到了列车数量减少的需要。了解脱轨风险是评估铁路系统整体安全性以及未来发展和监管货运铁路运输的重要组成部分。鉴于目前货运列车长度数据的局限性，本研究为实现这一认识迈出了重要一步。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

7.50

自引率

10.50%

发文量

183

审稿时长

4.2 months

期刊介绍： Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.