A two-timescale model of plankton-oxygen dynamics predicts formation of oxygen minimum zones and global anoxia.

Abstract

Decline of the dissolved oxygen in the ocean is a growing concern, as it may eventually lead to global anoxia, an elevated mortality of marine fauna and even a mass extinction. Deoxygenation of the ocean often results in the formation of oxygen minimum zones (OMZ): large domains where the abundance of oxygen is much lower than that in the surrounding ocean environment. Factors and processes resulting in the OMZ formation remain controversial. We consider a conceptual model of coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics that, apart from the plankton growth and the oxygen production by phytoplankton, also accounts for the difference in the timescales for phyto- and zooplankton (making it a "slow-fast system") and for the implicit effect of upper trophic levels resulting in density dependent (nonlinear) zooplankton mortality. The model is investigated using a combination of analytical techniques and numerical simulations. The slow-fast system is decomposed into its slow and fast subsystems. The critical manifold of the slow-fast system and its stability is then studied by analyzing the bifurcation structure of the fast subsystem. We obtain the canard cycles of the slow-fast system for a range of parameter values. However, the system does not allow for persistent relaxation oscillations; instead, the blowup of the canard cycle results in plankton extinction and oxygen depletion. For the spatially explicit model, the earlier works in this direction did not take into account the density dependent mortality rate of the zooplankton, and thus could exhibit Turing pattern. However, the inclusion of the density dependent mortality into the system can lead to stationary Turing patterns. The dynamics of the system is then studied near the Turing bifurcation threshold. We further consider the effect of the self-movement of the zooplankton along with the turbulent mixing. We show that an initial non-uniform perturbation can lead to the formation of an OMZ, which then grows in size and spreads over space. For a sufficiently large timescale separation, the spread of the OMZ can result in global anoxia.