Machine learning techniques for estimation of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations observed at geostationary orbits during solar cycle 23

IF 1.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS
Justice Allotey Pappoe , Yoshikawa Akimasa , Ali Kandil , Ayman Mahrous
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations can accelerate electrons in the radiation belts, which can pose adverse threats to both astronauts and satellites in space. The estimation of Pc5 waves in space is crucial to radiation belt dynamics studies and will help mitigate these challenges. Here, we explore the advantages of the Feed-forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Random Forest (RF) algorithm for effective estimation of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations observed in space at geostationary orbit during solar cycle 23. The dataset used in this study is the vector magnetic field measurements retrieved from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-10 (GOES-10) and the solar wind parameters: Bz and Vx component of the solar wind in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) coordinate system, proton density, flow pressure, and plasma beta obtained from the OMNI Web database during part of solar cycle 23. Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations were extracted from the toroidal component of the magnetic field time series using a bandpass Butterworth filter. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was utilized to study the characteristics of the extracted wave in the time-frequency domain for its validation. The validated Pc5 events were used as the target in the model's development, with the solar wind parameters as the inputs. In addition to the solar wind parameters, we included an attribute of the magnetic field time series as an input variable in the model. The dataset is carefully divided to ensure effective training and testing of the models. Finally, we trained both models using the same inputs and targets and explored their estimation abilities. The model was tested during the maximum, descending, and minimum phases of solar cycle 23. Both the FFNN and RF models have a similar estimation, with average cross-correlation score (R) values of 0.74 and 0.73 and corresponding average root mean squared error (RMSEs) of 0.16 nT and 0.67 nT, respectively. The model was deployed to investigate the response of Pc5 waves during three storm days in each testing year. The machine learning (ML) model outputs showed good coherence with the observed Pc5 waves. To validate the models, we studied the correlation between the estimated Pc5 events with the Kp index, and a good correlation was seen to exist between both events. This validates the good performance of the developed models. This work will aid in the study of radiation belt dynamics and the construction of electron depletion regions in the radiation belt.

估算太阳周期 23 期间地球静止轨道观测到的 Pc5 地磁脉冲的机器学习技术
Pc5 地磁脉动会加速辐射带中的电子,从而对太空中的宇航员和卫星造成不利威胁。空间 Pc5 波的估算对辐射带动力学研究至关重要,将有助于缓解这些挑战。在此,我们探讨了前馈神经网络(FFNN)和随机森林(RF)算法在有效估计太阳周期 23 期间在地球静止轨道观测到的空间 Pc5 地磁脉动方面的优势。本研究使用的数据集是从地球静止业务环境卫星-10(GOES-10)获取的矢量磁场测量数据和太阳风参数:在太阳周期 23 的部分时间里,从 OMNI 网络数据库中获得了太阳风在地心太阳黄道坐标系中的 Bz 和 Vx 分量、质子密度、流压和等离子体贝塔。使用带通巴特沃斯滤波器从磁场时间序列的环形分量中提取 Pc5 地磁脉动。利用连续小波变换(CWT)研究了提取的波在时频域的特征,以便对其进行验证。经过验证的 Pc5 事件作为模型开发的目标,太阳风参数作为输入。除太阳风参数外,我们还将磁场时间序列的一个属性作为模型的输入变量。数据集经过仔细划分,以确保模型的有效训练和测试。最后,我们使用相同的输入和目标对两个模型进行了训练,并探索了它们的估算能力。模型在太阳周期 23 的最大、下降和最小阶段进行了测试。FFNN和RF模型的估计结果相似,平均交叉相关分(R)值分别为0.74和0.73,相应的平均均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.16 nT和0.67 nT。该模型用于研究 Pc5 波浪在每个测试年的三个风暴日中的响应。机器学习(ML)模型的输出结果与观测到的 Pc5 波具有良好的一致性。为了验证模型,我们研究了估计的 Pc5 事件与 Kp 指数之间的相关性,发现这两个事件之间存在良好的相关性。这验证了所开发模型的良好性能。这项工作将有助于辐射带动力学研究和辐射带电子耗尽区的构建。
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来源期刊
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
5.30%
发文量
95
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them. The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.
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