Can seasonal prediction models capture the Arctic mid-latitude teleconnection on monthly time scales?

IF 2 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Gaeun Kim, Woo-Seop Lee, Baek-Min Kim
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study explores Arctic warming's effect on Eurasia's temperature variability, notably the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern, and assesses seasonal prediction models' accuracy in capturing this phenomenon and its monthly variation. Arctic warming events are categorized into deep Arctic warming (DAW), shallow Arctic warming (SAW), warming aloft (WA), and no Arctic warming (NOAW), based on the temperatures at 2 m and 500 hPa in the Barents–Kara Sea. It is revealed that DAW events are significantly correlated with monthly cold temperature anomalies in East Asia, predominantly occurring in January–February, excluding December. This study evaluates two primary capabilities of seasonal prediction models: their proficiency in forecasting these Arctic warming events, particularly DAW, and their ability to replicate the spatial patterns associated with DAW. Some models demonstrated notable predictive skill for DAW events, with enhanced performance in January and February. Regarding spatial pattern reproduction, models showed limited alignment with the reference dataset over the Northern Hemisphere (above 25° N) in December, whereas a higher degree of concordance was observed in January–February. This indicates their capability in capturing the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with DAW, pointing to areas where model performance can be enhanced.

Abstract Image

季节预测模型能否捕捉到月度时间尺度上的北极中纬度远程联系?
本研究探讨了北极变暖对欧亚大陆气温变化的影响,特别是北极暖-欧亚冷(WACE)模式,并评估了季节预测模式捕捉这一现象及其月度变化的准确性。根据巴伦支海-卡拉海 2 m 和 500 hPa 的温度,将北极变暖事件分为北极深层变暖(DAW)、北极浅层变暖(SAW)、高空变暖(WA)和北极无变暖(NOAW)。结果表明,DAW 事件与东亚的月度低温异常显著相关,主要发生在 1 月至 2 月,不包括 12 月。这项研究评估了季节预测模式的两个主要能力:预测北极变暖事件(尤其是 DAW)的能力,以及复制与 DAW 相关的空间模式的能力。一些模式对 DAW 事件具有显著的预测能力,在 1 月和 2 月的表现更为突出。在空间模式再现方面,模式在 12 月与北半球(北纬 25°以上)参考数据集的吻合程度有限,而在 1 月至 2 月的吻合程度较高。这表明它们有能力捕捉与大气干旱预警相关的大气环流模式,并指出了可以提高模式性能的领域。
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来源期刊
Atmospheric Science Letters
Atmospheric Science Letters METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
3.30%
发文量
73
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Atmospheric Science Letters (ASL) is a wholly Open Access electronic journal. Its aim is to provide a fully peer reviewed publication route for new shorter contributions in the field of atmospheric and closely related sciences. Through its ability to publish shorter contributions more rapidly than conventional journals, ASL offers a framework that promotes new understanding and creates scientific debate - providing a platform for discussing scientific issues and techniques. We encourage the presentation of multi-disciplinary work and contributions that utilise ideas and techniques from parallel areas. We particularly welcome contributions that maximise the visualisation capabilities offered by a purely on-line journal. ASL welcomes papers in the fields of: Dynamical meteorology; Ocean-atmosphere systems; Climate change, variability and impacts; New or improved observations from instrumentation; Hydrometeorology; Numerical weather prediction; Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting; Physical processes of the atmosphere; Land surface-atmosphere systems.
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