Modeling the Transmission Routes of Hepatitis E Virus as a Zoonotic Disease Using Fractional-Order Derivative

IF 1.2 Q2 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED
Shaibu Osman, Binandam Stephen Lassong, Munkaila Dasumani, Ernest Yeboah Boateng, Winnie Mokeira Onsongo, Boubacar Diallo, Oluwole Daniel Makinde
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Abstract

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is one of the emerging zoonotic diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa. Domestic pigs are considered to be the main reservoir for this infectious disease. A third of the world’s population is thought to have been exposed to the virus. The zoonotic transmission of the HEV raises serious zoonotic and food safety concerns for the general public. This is a major public health issue in both developed and developing countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 44,000 people died in 2015 as a result of HEV infection. East and South Asia have the highest prevalence of this disease overall. In this study, we proposed, developed, and analyzed the transmission routes of the infection using a fractional-order derivative approach. The existence, stability, and uniqueness of solutions were established using the approach and concept in Banach space. Local and global stability was determined using the Hyers–Ulam (HU) stability approach. Numerical simulation was conducted using existing parameter values, and it was established that, as the susceptible human population declines, the number of infected human populations rises with a change in fractional order θ^. When the susceptible pig population increases, the number of infected pig populations rises with a change in θ^. It was observed that a few variations in the fractional derivative order did not alter the function’s overall behavior with the results of numerical simulations. Moreover, as the number of recovered human populations increases, there is a corresponding increase in the population of recovered pigs with a change in θ^. The exponential increase in the infected pig population can be controlled by treatment of the infected pigs and prevention of the susceptible pigs. The authors recommend policymakers, and stakeholders prioritize the fight against the virus by enforcing the prevention of humans and treatment of infected pigs. The model can be extended to optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the most effective control strategy that comes with less cost in the combat of the disease.
利用分数阶差法模拟戊型肝炎病毒作为人畜共患病的传播途径
戊型肝炎病毒(HEV)是撒哈拉以南非洲地区新出现的人畜共患病之一。家猪被认为是这种传染病的主要传播源。据认为,世界上三分之一的人口接触过这种病毒。HEV 的人畜共患传播给公众带来了严重的人畜共患和食品安全问题。这在发达国家和发展中国家都是一个重大的公共卫生问题。据世界卫生组织(WHO)估计,2015 年有 44,000 人死于 HEV 感染。东亚和南亚是该疾病发病率最高的地区。在这项研究中,我们利用分数阶导数方法提出、开发并分析了感染的传播途径。利用巴拿赫空间的方法和概念,确定了解的存在性、稳定性和唯一性。利用海尔-乌兰(HU)稳定性方法确定了局部和全局稳定性。利用现有参数值进行了数值模拟,结果表明,随着易感人群数量的减少,受感染人群数量会随着分数阶数 θ^ 的变化而增加。当易感猪群数量增加时,受感染猪群数量会随着 θ^ 的变化而增加。数值模拟结果表明,分数导数阶数的一些变化并没有改变函数的整体行为。此外,随着恢复的人类数量的增加,恢复的猪的数量也会随着 θ^ 的变化而相应增加。感染猪数量的指数增长可以通过治疗感染猪和预防易感猪来控制。作者建议政策制定者和利益相关者优先考虑通过加强对人类的预防和对感染猪的治疗来抗击病毒。该模型可扩展到最优控制和成本效益分析,以确定最有效的控制策略,从而以较低的成本防治该疾病。
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来源期刊
Journal of Applied Mathematics
Journal of Applied Mathematics MATHEMATICS, APPLIED-
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
58
审稿时长
3.2 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Applied Mathematics is a refereed journal devoted to the publication of original research papers and review articles in all areas of applied, computational, and industrial mathematics.
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