Forecasting Use of Critical Rear-Earth Metals and Lithium During Energy Transformation

Abstract

   Energy transition from power-engineering of fossil fuel to low-carbon power-engineering requires great amounts of minerals. The growth in global demand for real-earth metals brings serious pressure on today’s supply. Among necessary minerals rear-earth elements (REE) are key components of ecologically clean power technologies, such as windmills and electric vehicles. In spite of importance of rear-earth metals forecasting of their future use is still a complicated task. The article paid key attention to forecasts of using lithium in electric vehicles and wind power stations, as well as neodymium. The authors researched problems connected with current and future REE supplies for low-carbon technologies: monopoly of China, the absence of equivalents substitutions, low rate of processing, etc. The authors analyzed long-term trends of consuming rear-earth metals and lithium on the basis of simple models of data and more complicated ones - multinomial. In general, models can forecast consequences only in limited degree, as in many cases they make up a structure, which combines a great number of initial assumptions. We propose a new approach to appraisal future use of key resources for energy transitions, which can answer the question ‘how to satisfy the current and future demand for power’ and will help scientists and decision-makers develop sustainable power strategies in view of climatic challenges and compare non-modeled scenarios on the basis of expert analysis.