{"title":"How does geopolitical risk affect international freight?","authors":"Ke Liu , Qiang Fu","doi":"10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102614","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Geopolitical uncertainty has become a salient risk to international freight. In this study, we investigate the impact of the geopolitical risk on air freight volume, sea freight volume, and road freight volume, respectively. The findings reveal that the effect of geopolitical risk on the three types of international freight is negative and statistically significant. However, a significant difference exists in the elasticity of impact, with sea freight exhibiting the highest elasticity to geopolitical risk, road freight demonstrating the lowest elasticity to geopolitical risk, and air freight presenting moderate elasticity to geopolitical risk. The heterogeneity test indicates that the impact of geopolitical risk on international freight was most significant from 2001 to 2005 compared to before 2001 and after 2005. The mechanism study explores that the negative effect of geopolitical risk on international freight transportation is moderated by international commodity trade.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14925,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Air Transport Management","volume":"118 ","pages":"Article 102614"},"PeriodicalIF":3.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Air Transport Management","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699724000796","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Geopolitical uncertainty has become a salient risk to international freight. In this study, we investigate the impact of the geopolitical risk on air freight volume, sea freight volume, and road freight volume, respectively. The findings reveal that the effect of geopolitical risk on the three types of international freight is negative and statistically significant. However, a significant difference exists in the elasticity of impact, with sea freight exhibiting the highest elasticity to geopolitical risk, road freight demonstrating the lowest elasticity to geopolitical risk, and air freight presenting moderate elasticity to geopolitical risk. The heterogeneity test indicates that the impact of geopolitical risk on international freight was most significant from 2001 to 2005 compared to before 2001 and after 2005. The mechanism study explores that the negative effect of geopolitical risk on international freight transportation is moderated by international commodity trade.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Air Transport Management (JATM) sets out to address, through high quality research articles and authoritative commentary, the major economic, management and policy issues facing the air transport industry today. It offers practitioners and academics an international and dynamic forum for analysis and discussion of these issues, linking research and practice and stimulating interaction between the two. The refereed papers in the journal cover all the major sectors of the industry (airlines, airports, air traffic management) as well as related areas such as tourism management and logistics. Papers are blind reviewed, normally by two referees, chosen for their specialist knowledge. The journal provides independent, original and rigorous analysis in the areas of: • Policy, regulation and law • Strategy • Operations • Marketing • Economics and finance • Sustainability
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