A deterministic mathematical model with non-linear least squares method for investigating the transmission dynamics of lumpy skin disease

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an economically significant viral disease of cattle caused by the lumpy disease virus (LSDV) which is primarily spread mechanically by blood feeding vectors such as particular species in flies, mosquitoes and ticks. Despite efforts to control its spread, LSD has been expanding geographically, posing challenges for effective control measures. This study develops a Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered–Susceptible (SEIRS) model that incorporates cattle and vector populations to investigate LSD transmission dynamics. The model considers the waning rate of natural active immunity in recovered cattle, disease-induced mortality, and the biting rate. Using a standard dynamical system approach, we conducted a qualitative analysis of the model, defining the invariant region, establishing conditions for solution positivity, computing the basic reproduction number, and examining the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria. We employ a non-linear least squares method for model calibration, fitting it to a synthetic dataset. We subsequently test it with actual infectious cases data. Results from the calibration and testing phases demonstrate the model’s validity and reliability for diverse settings. Local and global sensitivity analyses were conducted to determine the model’s robustness to parameter values. The biting rate emerged as the most significant parameter, followed by the probabilities of infection from either population and the recovery rate. Additionally, the waning rate of LSD infection-induced immunity gained positive significance in LSD prevalence from the beginning of the infectious period onward. Simulation results suggest reducing the biting rate as the most effective LSD control measure, which can be achieved by applying vector repellents in cattle farms/herds, thereby mitigating the disease’s prevalence in both cattle and vector populations and reducing the chances of infection from either population. Furthermore, measures aiming to boost LSD infection-induced immunity upon recovery are recommended to preserve the immune systems of the cattle population.