Suppression of malaria transmission and increases in economic productivity in African countries from 2007 to 2011.

MalariaWorld journal Pub Date : 2014-03-04 eCollection Date: 2014-01-01 DOI:10.5281/zenodo.10878649
William R Jobin
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Abstract

Background: To test the assumption that reductions in malaria in Africa will increase economic productivity, a correlation-regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the impact of expenditures by the US President's Malaria Initiative for Africa (PMI), and increases in the economic productivity of countries included in the PMI.

Materials and methods: For the 12 most representative countries the per capita expenditures for malaria suppression in the 2011 budget of the PMI were compared with observed increases in per capita economic productivity. The measure of economic productivity used was the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period 2007 to 2011.

Results: With a mean annual expenditure for suppressing malaria slightly above 1 US dollar per capita (range 0.44-3.40), there was a positive but weak correlation of higher expenditures with increased economic productivity. The correlation coefficient r was 0.5. The increase in per capita GDP in these countries over the 4-year period varied between 60 and 200 USD. The slope of the regression line and thus the ratio of benefits to cost from this programme varied slightly between ecologic zones, but the mean was 6.75 to 1. This meant that there was an increase in per capita GDP of $6.75 for every $1 invested per capita in suppressing malaria.

Conclusions: The high benefits to cost ratio from the PMI makes suppression of malaria by methods used by the initiative potentially an attractive investment, at least for the near future while the biocides and drugs deployed are still effective.

2007 年至 2011 年非洲国家疟疾传播的抑制和经济生产力的提高。
背景:为了验证减少非洲疟疾会提高经济生产力这一假设,我们进行了一项相关回归分析,以评估美国总统非洲疟疾倡议(PMI)的支出与该倡议所包括国家的经济生产力增长之间的影响:在 12 个最具代表性的国家中,将 2011 年《非洲防治疟疾倡议》预算中用于抑制疟疾的人均支出与观察到的人均经济生产率增长进行了比较。经济生产力的衡量标准是 2007 年至 2011 年期间的人均国内生产总值 (GDP):每年用于抑制疟疾的平均支出略高于人均 1 美元(范围为 0.44-3.40),支出的增加与经济生产率的提高呈正相关,但相关性较弱。相关系数 r 为 0.5。4 年间,这些国家的人均国内生产总值增幅在 60 美元到 200 美元之间。回归线的斜率以及该计划的收益与成本之比在不同生态区之间略有不同,但平均值为 6.75 比 1。 这意味着,在抑制疟疾方面,人均每投入 1 美元,人均国内生产总值就会增加 6.75 美元:预防疟疾倡议的高成本效益比使得通过该倡议所使用的方法来抑制疟疾可能成为一项有吸引力的投资,至少在不久的将来,在所使用的杀菌剂和药物仍然有效的情况下是如此。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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