An economic indicator of the orbital debris environment

Abstract

The continued growth of orbital debris increases potential losses faced by commercial operators in Earth's orbits. Yet, there is no commonly accepted measure that describes the orbital debris environment from an economic perspective. This study begins to fill that gap by developing an Orbital Debris Economic Loss Index (ODELI) that measures and tracks the changes in the expected negative economic impact of orbital debris on satellite operators, both in aggregate and in specific orbits. Such information is valuable to the stakeholders, such as policymakers, commercial operators, and the public, in communicating valuable information about the economic state of the orbital debris environment.

We illustrate the calculation of the index utilizing the data from 2012 to 2022. The analysis is based on the publicly available data and the Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) orbital debris environment model. Our analysis suggests that the aggregate expected economic damage to Earth's orbits is increasing at a slower rate than the growth rate of the number of satellites or trackable pieces of debris objects. The slower rate of growth in ODELI indices from 2012 to 2022 is explained by a decrease in the average mass of satellites, a reduction in the real cost of placing satellites in orbit, and a commercial preference to launch satellites into orbits with lower debris density.

The estimates of annual expected economic losses from debris collisions increased from $86 million to $107 million from 2012 to 2022, and the losses are concentrated in the low-Earth orbit (LEO). However, LEO had the smallest rate of increase in ODELI compared to other orbits. Medium-Earth orbit (MEO), which has the smallest contribution to the combined expected economic losses from debris on the Earth's orbits, experienced the fastest rate of increase in ODELI during the same period.