Risk factors and nomogram of clinically relevant pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy for periampullary cancer: A prospective multicenter cohort study

Abstract

Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CRPF) is considered the most dangerous morbidity associated with pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk factors and to construct a predicted model for CRPF after PD. Consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy between August 2021 and October 2023 at Cho Ray Hospital and University Medical Center were included in a multicenter cohort research. Multivariate logistic regression analyses was used to identify the risk factors of CRPF, and a nomogram was built based on these factors. The value of the nomogram in predicting CRPF was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. There were 183 eligible patients in this study (mean age: 57.5 ± 12.6 years; 101 males), and the prevalence of CRPF was 13,7% overall. Multivariate analyses showed that, four risk factors related to CRPF, including preoperative serum albumin <3.5 g/dl, body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m2, soft texture of the pancreas and estimated blood loss ≥400 ml were prognostic factors for CRPF (p < 0.05). We built a nomogram based on four variables to predict CRPF, and the area under the ROC curve for this nomogram was 0.855 (95% CI: 0,768 – 0,933). Nomogram developed from four risk factors shows good performance to predict CRPF after PD. The clinical findings of this study will help surgeons identify perioperative risk factors for high-risk patients with pancreatic fistula who should be managed differently from other patients. Clinical Trial Registry number: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05017207. We successfully developed a nomogram to predict the risk of pancreatic fistula using four perioperative factors. By incorporating these risk factors into clinical practice, surgeons can develop appropriate treatment plans and interventions for high-risk patient populations, potentially reducing the morbidity associated with CRPF.