Violence, Democracy and Criminal Justice in five South American countries (2014-2020)

José Maria Nóbrega
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Abstract

Latin America is the most violent region in the world. Its average rate exceeds 20 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, while the global average rate is 6 per 100,000 and the epidemic limit is 10 per 100,000. No consolidated democracy has uncontrolled rates of homicidal violence, none of them have high impunity and a low rate of rule of law. Our task in this paper will be to relate violence, the level of democracy and criminal justice as a proxy indicator of the rule of law in five representative countries in Latin America. To this end, we use the following as indicators for measuring, classifying and correlating these concepts: democracy indices from The Economist's Democracy Index; UNODC homicide rates per hundred thousand inhabitants as a proxy for violence; and the factor eight criminal justice indices from the World Justice Project's Rule of Law Index (2021). Our theoretical argument, or conjecture to be tested, was that the indicators of violence, democracy and criminal justice as a factor of the Rule of Law are associated. In other words, the signs of statistical correlations and crossing data sets from the 2014-2020 time series point to a higher level of democracy when there is a higher level of criminal justice and, in turn, lower levels of violence. Data analysis confirmed our theoretical conjecture and, in the five countries analyzed, violence tends to fall with the improvement of criminal justice indicators (Rule of Law) and reflects a better quality of democracy.
南美洲五国的暴力、民主和刑事司法(2014-2020 年)
拉丁美洲是世界上暴力最严重的地区。其平均杀人率超过每 10 万居民 20 起,而全球平均杀人率为每 10 万居民 6 起,流行病极限为每 10 万居民 10 起。没有任何一个巩固的民主国家的杀人暴力率不受控制,也没有任何一个国家的有罪不罚现象严重和法治率低。本文的任务是将拉美五个代表性国家的暴力、民主水平和作为法治替代指标的刑事司法联系起来。为此,我们使用以下指标来衡量、分类和关联这些概念:《经济学家》民主指数中的民主指数;联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室每十万居民的凶杀率作为暴力的替代指标;以及世界正义项目法治指数(2021 年)中的八个刑事司法指数。我们的理论论点或有待验证的猜想是,暴力、民主和作为法治要素的刑事司法指标是相关联的。换句话说,2014-2020 年时间序列的统计相关性和交叉数据集的迹象表明,当刑事司法水平较高时,民主水平也较高,反过来,暴力水平也较低。数据分析证实了我们的理论猜想,在所分析的五个国家中,暴力倾向于随着刑事司法指标(法治)的改善而下降,并反映出民主质量的提高。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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