MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF MEASLES IN TURKEY

IF 1.3 4区数学 Q3 BIOLOGY

Journal of Biological Systems Pub Date : 2024-05-09 DOI:10.1142/s0218339024500323

Osman Isik Rasit, N. Tuncer, M. Martcheva

引用次数: 0

Abstract

In this paper, we use a previously developed measles model to forecast measles in Turkey for the period 1970–2021. We study the structural identifiability of the model both by hand and using software. By hand, we assume the prevalence and the total population size are given. Using software, we assume the incidence and the total population size are given. The model is structurally identifiable if one of the three parameters is fixed. We notice that Turkey has a significant change in time of the immigration rate and vaccination proportions, so we assume these two quantities are time-dependent. We fit the nonautonomous model to the measles incidences in Turkey for 1970–2021. We perform practical identifiability of the fitted model, and find that all parameters but one are practically identifiable. When fixing the unidentifiable parameter to a value derived from additional data, we obtain that all parameters are practically identifiable.

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土耳其麻疹数学模型

在本文中，我们使用以前开发的麻疹模型来预测 1970-2021 年期间土耳其的麻疹情况。我们通过手工和软件研究了该模型的结构可识别性。通过手工操作，我们假设流行率和总人口规模是给定的。使用软件时，我们假定发病率和总人口规模是给定的。如果三个参数中的一个固定不变，则模型在结构上是可识别的。我们注意到，土耳其的移民率和疫苗接种比例随时间变化很大，因此我们假定这两个量随时间变化。我们将非自治模型与 1970-2021 年土耳其的麻疹发病率进行拟合。我们对拟合模型进行了实际可识别性分析，发现除一个参数外，其他参数均可实际识别。当把无法识别的参数固定为从其他数据中得出的值时，我们发现所有参数实际上都是可识别的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Biological Systems 生物-生物学

CiteScore

2.80

自引率

12.50%

发文量

审稿时长

1 months

期刊介绍： The Journal of Biological Systems is published quarterly. The goal of the Journal is to promote interdisciplinary approaches in Biology and in Medicine, and the study of biological situations with a variety of tools, including mathematical and general systems methods. The Journal solicits original research papers and survey articles in areas that include (but are not limited to): Complex systems studies; isomorphies; nonlinear dynamics; entropy; mathematical tools and systems theories with applications in Biology and Medicine. Interdisciplinary approaches in Biology and Medicine; transfer of methods from one discipline to another; integration of biological levels, from atomic to molecular, macromolecular, cellular, and organic levels; animal biology; plant biology. Environmental studies; relationships between individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems; bioeconomics, management of renewable resources; hierarchy theory; integration of spatial and time scales. Evolutionary biology; co-evolutions; genetics and evolution; branching processes and phyllotaxis. Medical systems; physiology; cardiac modeling; computer models in Medicine; cancer research; epidemiology. Numerical simulations and computations; numerical study and analysis of biological data. Epistemology; history of science. The journal will also publish book reviews.