Estimation of Groundwater River Availability in Leang Lonrong Cave Using ARIMA Model and Econophysics Valuation Approach

Abstract

This quantitative descriptive study uses the ARIMA model approach to predict groundwater river water availability. It assesses its valuation with an econophysics orientation in the Leang Lonrong Cave area of TN Bantimurung Bulusaraung. Secondary data from 2010-2023, including Water Discharge and Water Level data from the River Basin Center of Pompengan Jeneberang (BBWS) and primary data on the Valuation of Willingness to Pay, were utilized. The analysis reveals that water discharge predictions (2024-2030) in the Gua Leang Lonrong area indicate consistent annual water availability, with the highest discharge projected in December 2030 (5.08 m3/s) and the lowest in September 2024 (1.12 m3/s). Valuation of utilizing Leang Lonrong River water through willingness to pay showed residents willing to pay Rp 42,142.85/month for clean water management. At the same time, visitors are willing to contribute Rp 21,596.77/visit to enhance water quality management. Elasticity analysis modeling water discharge with willingness to pay suggests a relatively elastic relationship, with a minor impact, indicating unresponsiveness to changes in water discharge percentages. Statistical and economic methods were employed to analyze daily water discharge patterns and evaluate residents' willingness to pay for underground river water utilization. The ARIMA model (0,1,1) forecasted future water discharge patterns with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 33.7%. The study surveyed 62 respondents, finding an average willingness to pay approximately IDR 21,596.77 per visit to maintain Leang Lonrong River water quality management.