Masahiro Sugiyama, S. Fujimori, Kenichi Wada, Estsushi Kato, Yuhji Matsuo, Osamu Nishiura, K. Oshiro, Takashi Otsuki
{"title":"Residual emissions and carbon removal towards Japan’s net-zero goal: A multi-model analysis","authors":"Masahiro Sugiyama, S. Fujimori, Kenichi Wada, Estsushi Kato, Yuhji Matsuo, Osamu Nishiura, K. Oshiro, Takashi Otsuki","doi":"10.1088/2515-7620/ad4af2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n We study Japan’s net-zero emissions target by 2050 in a multi-model framework, focusing on residual emissions and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Four energy-economic and integrated assessment models show similar but stronger strategies for the net-zero target, compared to the previous, low-carbon policy target (80% emissions reduction). Results indicate that around 90% (inter-model median) of the current emissions are reduced through abatement, including improved energy efficiency and cleaner electricity and fuels. Models deploy new options such as CDR based on carbon capture and storage (CCS) (bioenergy with CCS and direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage) and hydrogen to achieve net zero. The scale of CCS-based CDR deployment reaches an inter-model median of 132Mt-CO2/yr. The median hydrogen share of final energy in 2050 increases from 0.79% to 6.9% between the low-carbon and net-zero scenarios. The CDR sensitivity analysis reveals that limiting the use of CDR significantly increases the mitigation costs for net zero. Achieving Japan’s net-zero goal will require exploring methods to reduce residual emissions, including demand-side solutions, and accelerating responsible CDR policies.","PeriodicalId":2,"journal":{"name":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","volume":"54 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad4af2","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
We study Japan’s net-zero emissions target by 2050 in a multi-model framework, focusing on residual emissions and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Four energy-economic and integrated assessment models show similar but stronger strategies for the net-zero target, compared to the previous, low-carbon policy target (80% emissions reduction). Results indicate that around 90% (inter-model median) of the current emissions are reduced through abatement, including improved energy efficiency and cleaner electricity and fuels. Models deploy new options such as CDR based on carbon capture and storage (CCS) (bioenergy with CCS and direct air carbon dioxide capture and storage) and hydrogen to achieve net zero. The scale of CCS-based CDR deployment reaches an inter-model median of 132Mt-CO2/yr. The median hydrogen share of final energy in 2050 increases from 0.79% to 6.9% between the low-carbon and net-zero scenarios. The CDR sensitivity analysis reveals that limiting the use of CDR significantly increases the mitigation costs for net zero. Achieving Japan’s net-zero goal will require exploring methods to reduce residual emissions, including demand-side solutions, and accelerating responsible CDR policies.
期刊介绍:
ACS Applied Bio Materials is an interdisciplinary journal publishing original research covering all aspects of biomaterials and biointerfaces including and beyond the traditional biosensing, biomedical and therapeutic applications.
The journal is devoted to reports of new and original experimental and theoretical research of an applied nature that integrates knowledge in the areas of materials, engineering, physics, bioscience, and chemistry into important bio applications. The journal is specifically interested in work that addresses the relationship between structure and function and assesses the stability and degradation of materials under relevant environmental and biological conditions.