Integrating Indicators in Agricultural Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change stands as one of the most pressing challenges confronting global ecosystems and human livelihoods. The agriculture sector of Anuradhapura district, Sri Lanka, well renowned for its pivotal role in the nation’s food production, faces an increasing threat from the changing climate. This study aims to incorporate the indicator system method which uses a set of indicators to assess the agricultural vulnerability (AV) to climate change in Anuradhapura district. The AV assessment used in this study involves three principal components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The indicators are normalized to allow spatial analysis and smooth integration within a geographic information system (GIS) framework. The AV of Anuradhapura district ranged from 0.32 to 0.67 and was divided among five levels very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The findings suggest that Anuradhapura’s agricultural sector was significantly impacted by climate change as the majority of the total area was found to have very high, high, and moderate levels of AV with 25, 28, and 24%, respectively. The results obtained from this study are essential for formulating plans to improve Anuradhapura’s agricultural sector resilience and adaptability to ensure food security and livelihood sustainability considering the ever-changing climate.